Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (44849)	1/20/2006 12:57:39 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Bankruptcy filings abiworld.org If 2 million was 1 in 53 households WTF? Are people serial bankruptcy filers? Mish

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (44849)	1/20/2006 1:15:41 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Fed's Yellen Says Inflation Risks `Skewed Slightly' to Upside Jan. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen said inflation is in the ``upper half'' of her preferred zone and there is a risk it may accelerate. ``I'm pretty comfortable with the inflation outlook,'' Yellen said today in response to an audience question after a speech to economists in Los Angeles. The risk of it speeding up is ``skewed slightly to the upside.'' She didn't elaborate on the risks. The remarks make Yellen the fourth member of the Fed's Open Market Committee, which decides the main U.S. interest rate, to express concern this week about inflation threats. Investors and economists are watching Fed speeches to gauge how many more times the central bank may raise its benchmark interest rate. Yellen said Oct. 18 that the Fed probably needs to keep raising rates, and the ``neutral'' level at which its key rate neither spurs nor restrains the economy ranges from 3.5 percent 5.5 percent. Today, with the rate at 4.25 percent, she said ``we're getting close to the center of that range.'' ``Neutral is not always an appropriate stance of policy, but it is an appropriate stance if you are quite satisfied with where inflation is,'' Yellen said today. The San Francisco Fed president said inflation is in the ``upper half'' of her comfort range, without providing details. After raising its benchmark rate 13 straight times since June 2004 to control inflation, the Fed will probably increase it again, to 4.5 percent, on Jan. 31, based on trading in fed funds futures contracts. Investors are divided on whether the Fed will raise rates again at its meeting on March 28. Price Pressures Falling unemployment and busier factories may produce bottlenecks in the economy that threaten to push prices higher, Fed Governor Susan Bies said yesterday. Richmond Fed Bank President Jeffrey Lacker, speaking the same day, said it's ``too soon'' to dismiss the risk from soaring energy prices. The Fed must ``keep energy price increases from causing a general run-up of inflation,'' Atlanta Fed President Jack Guynn said today. Yellen said today ``we have an economy that's operating somewhat above trend.'' In her prepared remarks, Yellen said the Fed must not ignore its mandate to promote ``full employment'' as it considers Fed chairman nominee Ben Bernanke's plan to adopt a numerical inflation goal. Moving to a publicly stated inflation target should be a ``long-run goal,'' and the Fed should have a ``flexible'' timeframe within which to meet that goal, Yellen said. Inflation Goal Bernanke, who will succeed Alan Greenspan as Fed chief next month, supports a numerical inflation target for the rate- setting Federal Open Market Committee, as does Yellen. Greenspan and other Fed policy makers, including Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson, oppose such a move, partly because it may limit the Fed's rate-setting flexibility. ``It is critically important that a numerical inflation objective not weaken our commitment to a dual mandate that includes full employment,'' Yellen said in the speech. ``I would see the numerical objective as a long-run goal, and would want the Committee to have a flexible timeframe within which to maintain it.'' Bernanke described such a goal at his Nov. 15 confirmation hearing before the Senate as a ``possible step toward greater transparency.'' The issue would require ``extensive discussion and consultation,'' Bernanke told the Senate Banking Committee at the time. Yellen, 59, who will vote on Fed interest-rate decisions this year, was a Fed governor from 1994 to 1997 and never dissented from a Fed interest-rate decision. She heads the largest Fed district by population, area and economic output. bloomberg.com

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (44849)	1/20/2006 1:27:13 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Iran denies shifting assets in Europe [does this mean they are about to? Mish] gulf-daily-news.com TEHRAN: Iran yesterday denied reports that it was moving billions of dollars in hard currency from European banks to Asia and said Europe had no right to freeze its assets. Economy Minister Davoud Danesh-Jafari dismissed a report in pan-Arab newspaper Asharq Al Awsat that Iran had ordered government departments to withdraw currency from European banks, fearing possible sanctions over its disputed nuclear programme. Danesh-Jafari described the news report as "politicised" and "media-driven." "International law does not allow Europeans to do such a thing (freeze assets)," Danesh-Jafari said. "Should they do it, it would be contrary to their interests because oil-producing countries... and other countries would become anxious and would transfer their financial reserves to more secure locations," he added. The London-based Arabic newspaper had quoted an unnamed Iranian central bank source as saying Iran had decided not to allow the Europeans the chance to freeze its bank accounts in case of a political or military confrontation over its nuclear ambitions. "A number of Iranian regime-linked figures have already withdrawn their private capital from European banks and deposited it in private banks in Hong Kong, as well as Dubai, Beirut, Singapore and Malaysia, over fears of account freezing," the source said. "The size of these deposits amounts to $8 billion - a quarter of Iran's hard-currency deposits," the source said, adding that the step did not involve Swiss banks. However, Iran's Central Bank chief Ebrahim Sheibani denied "the freezing of Iran's hard-currency accounts in European banks," according to the official IRNA news agency. Asked about the possible freezing of Iranian assets, he said: "We will do all that is necessary."

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (44849)	1/20/2006 1:31:24 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Trichet says euro zone hampered by limited access to finance for risky projects Friday, January 20, 2006 5:40:32 PM fxstreet.com STUTTGART, Germany (AFX) - European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet said euro zone growth may be lagging behind that of the US because euro zone companies find it less easy to raise financing for risky investments than their US counterparts US companies are able to raise funding for such projects more easily from the equity market or from venture capitalists, he said "Most euro area countries have sophisticated banking systems, but their equity markets are less developed," he said in a speech And he added: "It is an empirical fact that high-risk capital investments have been much larger in countries like the US, with a more developed venture capital market, than in other countries "Riskier, these investments involve high-tech projects with potentially high returns and speed up the overall structural transformation of the economy triggered by science and technology," he said Trichet noted that per capita GDP growth averaged 1.7 pct in the euro zone between 1995 and 2004, compared with a US rate of 2.2 pct And he said a wide gap in labour productivity growth accounts for the bulk of this underperformance, with euro zone productivity growth of 1.3 pct well short of the US figure of 2.5 pct Productivity growth depends on well-developed financial systems, macroeconomic stability and well-functioning product and labour markets, he said He said a lack of competition in product markets harms productivity trends by limiting production efficiency and reducing the incentive to innovate, but the EU has made some progress in increasing competition in network industries like telecommunications and air transport "The reforms do pay off -- the remarkable labour productivity growth performance in network industries in Europe over the last ten years provides a perfect example of the positive impact on labour productivity growth of easing regulations and fostering competition," he said And labour market policies should not act as an obstacle to restructuring, he said "Employment protection legislation may have a particularly strong negative impact in industries subject to rapid technological change," he said

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (44849)	1/20/2006 1:41:07 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Chinese eBay scraps fees as rivals press [I think this is very significant news. How long before price pressures in the US affect them? Could GOOG undercut them? What about Yahoo? Mish] By Mure Dickie in Beijing Published: January 19 2006 22:02 \| Last updated: January 19 2006 22:02 The Chinese unit of US online auction service eBay will on Friday scrap all sellers’ transaction fees, bowing to market pressure from local competitors – led by Yahoo-invested Alibaba.com – that offer free services. The move by unit eBay Eachnet, which will continue to charge users small fees to list goods for sale on its website, highlights the fierce competition the US company faces in a Chinese market it sees as a vital source of future growth. It also contrasts sharply with eBay’s efforts to raise fees in other markets. On Wednesday, eBay said it would raise the fees in the US by 9 per cent for goods worth between $25 and $975. EBay China had repeatedly waved aside challenges by Alibaba to scrap its charges, saying in October: “‘Free’ is not a business model”. However, its Chinese auction website sharply reduced its charges last year and recently began waiving transaction fees for the use of local escrow or PayPal services, which are also free. From on Friday, eBay Eachnet will scrap transaction charges while requiring sellers to settle deals using those payments services. “Each market is different...Chinese people are very price-sensitive, perhaps more than any other market,” said Lillian Liu, for eBay China. . “It is very important for us to lower the cost for sellers and to encourage them to offer safe payment.” In China, eBay’s transaction fees were previously charged as a percentage of the value of completed sales, ranging from Rmb10 for a sale worth Rmb500 ($62) to Rmb115 for one worth Rmb20,000. Its listing charges are much lower – a maximum Rmb3 for items with an initial price of Rmb2,000 or more. The move will add to eBay’s difficulty in maintaining sales growth outside the US. Year-on-year international revenue growth declined to 35 per cent last quarter from 65 per cent in the final three months of 2004. Alibaba, which has promised to keep its auction website Taobao.com free for three more years, said eBay’s decision to scrap transaction fees would not help it regain its lead in China. “Our listings and transactions are growing so fast it looks like they have finally seen the writing on the wall, but it is way too late in the game,” said Porter Erisman, Alibaba vice-president for corporate marketing. “The game is over as far as we are concerned.” Alibaba, in which Yahoo has a 40 per cent stake, said its users accounted for about 70 per cent of China’s online consumer-to-consumer market in 2005, with transactions worth Rmb3bn in the fourth quarter and registered users up 3.85m to 13.9m. But analysts say eBay has struggled to respond to the challenge from Alibaba and from new auction market entrants including Nasdaq-listed instant messaging company Tencent and online retailer Dangdang.com. news.ft.com