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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ahhaha who wrote (50474)	1/20/2006 2:55:45 PM
From: The Wharf	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

and shortage of available land Very true in CA with population approaching 300M.

To: ahhaha who wrote (50474)	1/20/2006 5:00:55 PM
From: Clarksterh	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Argument by assertion something that is so at odds with 90% of the data is both boring and silly. 90% of what data? Numbers. Value. Not, as you choose to use, non numerical trends. You appear to want to argue such valueless arguments as whenever real estate goes up, and no matter how much it goes up, as long as incomes are going up then the real estate price is not riskier. By that logic you would say the same even if incomes went up by 5% and real estate up by 100%. Two of these data are: a) RE Price/Income (even adjusting for interest rates) is extremely high. b) RE Price vs Rents according to the NAR, quality of first time buyers entering the market is improving. Not exactly a trustworthy source since they come with a large agenda. I'd love to see how that was measured. And I'd also note that regardless of 'trustworthiness' if you've been allowed/forced to stretch really far that you are vulnerable to problems. Bubble" is a concept, by the way, which has no clear definition. Semantics, since by definition a bubble can only be asserted absolutely after the fact. I think the best indication of a bubble is the amount of inherent lubrication that exists to enable a bursting - e.g. the huge number of interest only loans with balloon payments which will almost force the sale of the house if the prices fall even modestly. Thereby greasing the further fall if a decline gets started. Clark