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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: benwood who wrote (50534)	1/20/2006 7:14:19 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Benwood that was an excellent post. Thank you. It is 100% accurate. That is the problem in attempting to control prices by FED policy. They can control money but they can not dictate where it will go. They thought they would create jobs, well they did, in two places: China and Housing. The former causing huge deflationary pressures, the latter created a bubble in housing and credit lending (inflationary but only as long as it can continue). The root problem: monetary debasement. Oddly enough if there was not "monetary inflation" there would be no perceived "US$ bubble". Which came first: "inflation" or "the US$ bubble"? Mish

To: benwood who wrote (50534)	1/20/2006 9:02:47 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

In a global economy money supply in the US becomes one of many factors impacting inflation and deflation. To equate US money supply to inflation and deflation in a global economy is hogwash. We have an imbalance in current account payments approaching 1 trillion dollars per year and growing wildly out of control -- and all the moneterists do is yap about the US Fed and money supply. The Fed is a player, but it is not the game.

To: benwood who wrote (50534)	1/22/2006 7:39:33 PM
From: shades	Respond to of 110194

How do we sop up the liquidity? Chromatic Dispersion: ...Therefore as the financial system defaults, and money is created and the money supply is expanded, the ability to get money out of general circulation is diminished. This causes what most common people call inflation in goods and services. What is it Chen always says about prices going up in everything you NEED? cars than they needed, and more often, and so the recent One of my redneck friends took equity from his house and used some of the proceeds as a downpayment and bought a new GM vehicle - it now is worth less than the loan he owes on it. He has a tarp over it and doesn't drive it much now - says he doesn't want to put a lot of mileage on it and depreciate its value even more - hehe. Restaurants are discretionary, They are going out of business left and right here near clearwater from what I see. floridatrend.com RETAIL: Full Plate The industry is projecting growth for 2006, but the storms of the past two years have given restaurateurs indigestion. By Amy Keller HURRICANE HIT: Bahama Breeze owner Darden Restaurants estimates it lost up to $1.5 million from hurricanes last summer. The four hurricanes that swept through the state in 2005 put a strain on many eating establishments in hard-hit regions. Ruth’s Chris Steak House, which relocated its headquarters from New Orleans to Orlando in the wake of Katrina’s destruction, had to temporarily close its four south Florida locations due to power outages caused by Hurricane Wilma. Orlando-based Darden Restaurants, which owns Olive Garden, Red Lobster, Bahama Breeze and Smokey Bones, estimated losses of between $1 million and $1.5 million. Wilma caused Tampa-based Outback Steakhouse — which also operates Carrabba’s Italian Grill, Bonefish Grill and Lee Roy Selmon’s, among others — to lose 144 operating days and about $1.2 million in revenue in just the first three days after the hurricane made landfall. Many independent restaurants that were heavily damaged by hurricanes were forced to close permanently. The inclement weather put a damper on an industry that’s otherwise booming. Restaurants statewide registered about $19.9 billion in sales in 2005, a 5.6% increase over 2004, and rapid population growth and brisk tourism will translate into stellar profits and job growth over the next 12 months and beyond, according to the Florida Restaurant Association. The FRA projects that employment will increase 17.9% over the next 10 years, from approximately 736,000 jobs in 2005 to 868,000 by 2015. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HURRICANE FACTOR: With forecasters predicting an increase in hurricanes for the next several years, restaurateurs are getting ready. “We got battle-hardened last year,” says Jim DeSimone, vice president of corporate affairs for Darden Restaurants, which operates 146 restaurants in Florida. If a Category 1 or higher storm is headed toward Florida, Darden boards up its stores, pulls perishable food from its freezers and trucks it out of the area. The company also has a network of vendors on standby with portable generators it can move around the state after the hurricane passes. “We have a system where when hurricanes hit, we’re down. When it passes, we get them open very quickly,” DeSimone says. The company has also beefed up its assistance to employees, instituting cash payrolls during disasters and a “Darden Dimes” program, which provides $100 to $1,000 grants for housing and transportation. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FUEL FACTOR: Will high fuel costs cut restaurant-goers appetites? Perhaps. Nearly one-third of consumers surveyed by ACNielsen last summer said they would eat out less often because of higher gas prices. But most major restaurants report they have not noticed any measurable impact on sales because of higher fuel costs. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Restaurant Jobs Restaurant and food-service employment represents 9.7% of the total employment in Florida. California - 1,348,200 Texas - 879,500 Florida - 736,000 New York - 638,200 Ohio - 543,000 Source: National Restaurant Association, based on Bureau of Labor Statistics data For more information: restaurant.org/research/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wage Rise A minimum-wage increase this month could put a crimp in smaller restaurants’ operating budgets. The 25-cent increase will raise the minimum wage to $6.40 an hour, while tipped employees will see their hourly pay rise to $3.38.