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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sixty2nds who wrote (28084)	1/20/2006 7:40:56 PM
From: sixty2nds	Respond to of 95616

09:18 B2B inches up, expect AMAT and KLAC to disproportionately benefit - WR Hambrecht WR Hambrecht notes in last night's monthly release, SEMI's North American December book-to-bill ratio came in at 0.96, nominally higher than November's figure of 0.93 (revised up from 0.92). While meaningful for historical analysis, December's data is arguably of limited utility in the context of the current semicap environment. The firm believes that to discern the prospects of the industry for the first half of this year, it is more relevant to dissect the bullish commentary of companies that reported earlier this week, comments which were the rising tide that lifted all semicap boats yesterday. While the firm expects some profit-taking today, they believe the current run still has legs and is likely to last through Applied Materials' (AMAT) earnings call next month. That said, the firm's conviction that stock-picking is key to generating outsized returns remains unchanged. To that end, they continue to like ADE Corp. (ADEX) for its leadership in dimensional metrology for bare wafers and secular tailwind of 300mm capacity expansion. In addition, their view of Rudolph Technologies (RTEC) would change positively in the event the company is able to consummate its merger with August Technology (AUGT).

To: sixty2nds who wrote (28084)	1/21/2006 12:36:52 AM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95616

Just as expected the uptick in new orders will now be leveraged into a cycle peak scenario (second data point beside GS). After failing miserably in predicting an uptick they now jump on the order uptick. I don't think the news delivered by LAM was LAM specific rather it signaled a strong uptick in new orders for frontend equipment makers; nevertheless even with the huge upside in new order guidance the crooks were able to close AMAT around 19 (maxpain?). Auri was "sweating" but NVLS made perfect landing @ 27.50 finance.yahoo.com IC-equipment market to slow in 2H Mark LaPedus EE Times (01/20/2006 6:39 PM EST) SAN JOSE, Calif. — While the semiconductor-equipment market looks promising in the near term, orders are expected to slow in the second half of 2006, warned an analyst. “While the near-term front-end order environment remains strong (December and March both likely up 25 percent quarter-over-quarter), our sensitivity analysis indicates that even if equipment spending were to be up 10 percent year-over-year, industry bookings in general will likely decline in the second half of 2006,” said Avinash Kant, an analyst with Canaccord Adams Inc., an investment banking firm. “Given we are almost 6-8 months ahead of an imminent slowdown in orders, we recommend that clients start to take some profit in equipment names in general,” Kant said in a new report. (I must have heard this at least half a dozen times over the last couple months) At present, though, the market is stronger than expected. “North American front-end orders were up a strong 25 percent quarter-over-quarter,” he said. North American book-to-bill data for December increased to 0.96, compared to November’s revised number of 0.93. Front-end book-to-bill came in at 0.97 in December, up from 0.93 in November. Back-end increased to 0.95, from a revised 0.93 in November. This week, plasma-etch specialist Lam Research Corp. reported a “blow-out” quarter, as its sales were up 24 percent and well above its 5-to-10 percent guidance, said Bill Ong, an analyst with American Technology Research Inc. “Strong order growth is expected to continue as Lam expects March quarter orders to be up 25-to-30 percent sequentially,” Ong said. “Revenue is expected to increase 14-to-20 percent sequentially ($410-to-$430 million) with shipments up 30 percent sequentially to $510 million.” Robert Maire, an analyst with Needham & Co. LLC, said ASML Holding NV’s results this week met Wall Street’s expectations. Citing a strong bookings environment and growing average selling prices (ASPs), ASML’s sales are expected to be up for the first quarter of 2006, compared to the fourth quarter of 2005, he said. (Robert Maire - this guy downgraded VSEA on 10/28/2005 - the stock took a dive from 45 to 38. Thank you Robert) On the backend, ATE specialist Teradyne Inc. reported strong Q4 results that were above Wall Street’s expectations, said Dennis Wassung, an analyst with Canaccord Adams Inc. “We expect that growth in Teradyne's semiconductor test business continues to strengthen, partly from Teradyne's exposure to Sony's Cell microprocessor ramp for the upcoming PlayStation 3 game system,” he said. “We believe [Teradyne’s] results and data support our thesis for an improving spending environment for semi test equipment,” he said. “Coupled with high capacity utilization rates and IC unit growth, we continue to expect semi test industry fundamentals to remain strong in 2006.”