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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chainik who wrote (50616)	1/21/2006 1:23:49 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

Does your deflation scenario has any time frame attached to it Technically no. But does Puplava have a timeframe for his hyperinflation theory? Did Russ have a timeframe for his Crack-Up Boom theory? Does GST have a timeframe for his inflationary dollar death scenario? I do have a relative timeframe. Deflation will happen before any hyperinflation scenario or any significant continued inflationary scenario either. My model does allow for a spike in LT interest rates when the FED pauses and/or when the FED first cuts. If that happens it will totally crush housing. I have also discussed many times with Heinz the possibility there is a sudden massive dollar crash. We both think it is possible but very very remote possibilkity as well as short lived if it happens. There are likely to be a lot of twists and turns in this so no one it going to get it perfect. Look at the echo bubble in housing. I only know of a couple that called it (for the right reason) in advance. But they thought it would be over by 2004. It went on for close to two years after that. Mises accepted my piece Is the Inflation Monster Tamed? mises.org And I am quite proud of that. But they would not publish my piece The Kondratieff Cycle Revisited globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com because they did not want to get into a "timing debate" as to when something would hapen. That said, it seems likely the "false spring" is over. How long it takes for Winter to play out, and exactly how it does play out will be somewhat dictated by what Bernanke does, what other countries do, oil, and wars. It could be 2 years or 15 or 6. But I do think Winter has started or will start very soon. Best guess is thet we go in and out of recession a couple times over the next 6 years and they will be brutal. Mish