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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (50669)	1/21/2006 8:05:12 PM
From: benwood	Respond to of 110194

At that rate, my oil would be $6000 per year. But of course, I'd be arbitraging with other BTUs like I am this year -- space heaters for the 40% discount to electricity. I think that if oil went to 300/bbl, it could be much worse than in the oil embargo years because we import a far greater share, and with increased consumption (about 2x as many miles driven) and a gutted industry, the landscape could become bleak indeed. Just going from 30 to 60 may be enough to pull under GM & Ford. Demand will increase, but if there are minor jolts here and there, it will inspire alternatives including living with 2000 square feet instead of 3500. I predict that in the next twenty years, there will be supply crunches, perhaps severe at times and in certain places. But in 50 years, there will no longer be a supply crunch because we'll be moving past the age of oil. At $6000 per year, I'd keep my house far cooler than now, and use alternatives. My own oil consumption has decreased about 50% in the past 10 years (same house, same temp, same primary source of heat). I can't be the only person who can achieve that kind of savings.