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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TimbaBear who wrote (50681)	1/21/2006 10:49:29 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Actually, he has predicted the order: deflation first. Timba Correct Once we start the process. 99% chance of sustained deflation before hyperinflation. I will not declare victory on the basis of several months or even a year of deflation unless it is a total immediate depression. I view that as possible but extremely unlikely. Way way less than 1%. I will freely admit I was stupidly wrong on any outbreak of hyperinflation that lasts as much as a month. The odds of hyperinflation I also have as extremely remote. I favor a long drawn out cycle much like what Japan went thru. Nore that Japan had MANY false recoveries during the decline. I expect the same. Of course we could just crash over the next 4 years and be done with it. I doubt it. A prolonged agony seems right. For it to be exactly like Japan is expecting too much. Thus it will be different but in ways I do not know. Is that fair enough? Mish