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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (17350)	1/22/2006 8:03:46 PM
From: Big Bucks	Respond to of 25522

Bob, I think there is some merit to his projections. Fabs are using strategic planning to justify purchasing equipment. Leading edge fabs have been transitioning into advanced technology in a very methodical and controlled fashion rather than doing wholesale fab purchases. This is the right way to insure that their investments are bearing fruit and gives them time to optimize/maximize and integrate the newest technology into their sales growth projections based on customer demand. In effect, this controlled transition keeps the profit margins high on their older chip geometries and also keeps the margins very high on hard to get leading edge technology. They are balancing customer "demand" to maintain high profitability along the entire product line mix. Keep in mind that as productivity gains increase the potential for excess inventory and decreasing chip prices becomes an issue. He is suggesting taking profits before insiders and large holders do as the cycle nears its top, IMO.

To: robert b furman who wrote (17350)	1/23/2006 12:32:02 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25522

RE: "This guy just doesn't get it." YES! YES! YES! RE: "Capex has been constrained,for years now." NO! There have been NO shortages of any consequence. RE: "To sell 6 months before the top is to say forget the last 300%!" NO! The "top" has gone the way of the dinosaur. Semis are a growth industry and growth industries just GROW, don't top. When a single lithography tool can cost $30-40 million, lumpiness is a given. Orders weighted in 1H 2006, should prompt real analysts to discuss shipping schedules and not equate lower 2H 2006 orders with the sky is falling.