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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (17371)	1/23/2006 1:12:52 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

RE: "...of any consequence." Yes, there have been shortages and excess inventory accumulation. Business is driven by forecasting and normal margins of error produce shortages and excesses. These are mostly tactical. Strategic shortages and excesses were the rule in the past and they had significant consequences.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (17371)	1/23/2006 5:48:41 PM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

I believe Cary is referring to IC sales which ultimately drive capex; the last "peak" in capex did not lead to an oversupply situation - the next leg down because of excessive memory spending never materialized. Though capex still appears cyclical a change has taken place on how IC customers spend capital on equipment. IOW the capex peaks in the past always caused global IC sales to tank. Capex is still chunky but it has less severe consequence we are used to from the past. SCE never really tanked to a degree compared we experienced in the past finding RtS's "true bottom". Why? Because IC sales did not tank. home.comcast.net