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Politics : Sioux Nation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (55895)	1/23/2006 6:11:05 PM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 362466

The 2008 Election ianmorrison.com Rising consumer costs, retiring baby boomers and Medicare reform will push health care to center stage in 2008. By Ian Morrison* The presidential election of 2008 will be the most important event in the history of American health care. While health care is always a hot political topic in any election year (including this one), it is going to be absolutely critical in 2008, no matter what the outcome is this November. Why? Here are a few reasons. Consumer-deflected health care. There is considerable momentum behind the move to shift costs to consumers, and despite consumers' bitching, there is little to stop the trend. Health costs for employers have been rising at double-digit rates for almost five years, and employers have finally developed the backbone necessary to stick it to their employees. Because everyone is worried about having his or her job outsourced to India, the employee is eating the cost shift, albeit reluctantly. There is no reason this trend cannot continue for three or four more years, but it is not a long-run solution. Just imagine how cranky we will all be in 2008 when we are paying, out of our own pockets, thousands of dollars a year for health care. The baby boomers confront retirement security. The oldest baby boomers will turn 60 in 2007, and it is quite likely that this will be exactly the time when the penny finally drops for them: They have not saved enough money for retirement. Most importantly, they will realize that they don't have the close to $200,000 actuaries tell us they will need for out-of-pocket health care costs. Most of us will have to work forever; we will all become limo drivers in Boca Raton hauling other baby boomers around. From a soccer-mom agenda to a retirement security agenda. The baby boom has transformed every institution it has touched, from the elementary schools of the 50s to the colleges of the 60s and 70s and the workplace of the 80s and 90s. We boomers are used to being accommodated and being in charge. While Clinton rode to political power partly on the strength of the soccer moms' support, the 60-somethings of the future will be a powerful political force. Will they anticipate their looming retirement politically in 2008, or will they wait until it is almost too late (2012)? Medicare won't go bust, they say, until 2017--and maybe further out if you believe some of the optimists. But there is no question that a massive cohort of selfish, insecure, worried, narcissistic baby boomers will expect to be catered to, and I will be at the head of the line. The fallout from Medicare reform. As I wrote in a previous column, "Medicare Reform as Three Movies," the new Medicare benefit will be the status quo in 2008. Unless overturned or substantially modified in the interim, the elderly will have real experience with discount cards and doughnut holes, and the pharmaceutical industry will have many of its blockbusters off patent (either generic or over the counter). The 2008 election will be a referendum on the effectiveness of Medicare reform. What will be the outcome? I don't know. But I hope we have a real debate about American values of fairness; innovation; and economic, personal and fiscal responsibility. Most importantly, by 2008 we will need to have the national debate about the fundamental and total redesign of health care delivery and the system to finance it. Because one thing we can't ignore is the reality of 2022, when the peak of the baby boom hits 65 and all of us will be sitting around in nursing homes singing "I got you, Babe." We can't extrapolate that demographic onto the current health care system. __________________________________ *Ian Morrison is an author, consultant and futurist based in Menlo Park, California. He is also a regular contributor to H&HN OnLine.

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (55895)	1/23/2006 6:23:14 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 362466

2006 and 2008 Election Outlooks mydd.com by LA Democrat The following is a personal outlook at how things are looking for the Democrats in the 2006 Senate Races and how things are looking as of now in the 2008 Presidential Election. ELECTION 2006 DEMOCRATIC PICK-UPS: PENNSYLVANIA: I can't see how Casey loses this race AS LONG AS he doesn't do something stupid. Santorum clearly does not reflect the ideology of the entire state of Pennsylvania and he's better off being a lobbyist for the Christian Coalition instead of representing to people of Pennsylvania. Casey has led in ALL the opinion polls since Casey officially announced. Casey will pick up this seat by 10+ points. (+1) DEMOCRATIC HOLDS: MARYLAND: Though Steele is leading in the latest Rasmassuen Reports Poll, look for Congressman Cardin to capture the Democratic nomination and the election. Steele numbers are probably a little inflated because African American candidates tend to poll higher than the actual support. Maryland, a democratic stronghold, will ultimately come to their senses and Bush's numbers will drag down all Republican candidates in Maryland. Maryland will easily elect a democratic senator while bringing in a NEW governor. Look for Cardin to win by a wider than expected margin: 7 to 10%. (0+) MINNESOTA: Who's going to come out of the Democratic field? Your guess is as good as mine. Even with that, Democrats should win. Obviously, Minnesota is trending in recent Survey USA polls as extremely anti-Bush. And it showed in 2005 when the Mayor of St. Paul was ousted for endorsing President Bush in 2004. (?) NEW JERSEY: While NJ is a fairly democratic state, I believe this will the democrats toughest hold. Tom Kean Jr.'s father is a popular former governor, who recently served in the popular 9-11 Commission. Menendez also has a lower name recognition than Tom Kean Jr., mostly becasue of his father. However, your father can only get you so far in New Jersey. Menendez will hold, but it will be closer than expected: 3-5%. (0+) Other Holds: FLORIDA MICHIGAN NEBRASKA WASHINGTON ----------- (0+) DEMOCRATIC STEALS (POTENTIALLY): OHIO: HACKETT! HACKETT! HACKETT! In every single opinion poll that I have seen, Hackett has outpolled Brown in a head-to-head matchup aganist Senator DeWine. If Hackett wins the nomination, the Democrats should cruise to victory finally in 2006. Too bad two years too late. However, a Brown nomination could lead the Democrats in a close-race with DeWine favored. Brown is much more liberal than Hackett and from a fairly blue congressional district. Hackett performed well in 2005 race; however, that's not the reason why I think he will win. His stances reflect those of Ohio and a Marine debating nerdy DeWine on Ohio Television will be too much for Senator DeWine to overcome.(+1) TENNESSEE: Ford is leading in the latest poll; however, I think he can't win in southern Tennessee aganist a moderate Republican. Lucky for us, the Republicans will pick the ultra-conservative Republican Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker. I think he will win if Corker is nominated. He's moderate and will become the second black member of the United States Senate. (+1) RHODE ISLAND: I think Chafee is a lot stronger than many believe. I haven't read much about the race, but for now I think Chafee holds. (0+) MISSOURI: McCaskill, though couldn't win the governorship, will win the Senate Race. In 2004, Kerry numbers clearly dragged won McCaskill. She actually ran ahead of Kerry in Missouri. Right now, she leads in the most recent opinion polls. Bush's popularity is key in the race along with Governor Bond's popularity. As their numbers go, so will Senator Talent's numbers. I don't expect their numbers to improve, so Talent's numbers won't improve. McCaskill wins. (+1) MONTANA: As long as, Senator Burns doesn't retire. The Democrats will win thanks to Jack Abramoff. (+1) NEVADA: SENATOR ENSIGN may be in trouble if the Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman runs. Recently, Reid has said that the mayor is interested. Assuming that he runs, this will be the closest race and most unexpected seat to swing. (+1) 2006 ELECTION RESULTS: DEMOCRATS PICK UP 6 SEATS. SENATE: DEMOCRATS 51 REPUBLICANS 49 DEMOCRATS WIN CONTROL. 2008 PRESIDENTIAL CONTENDERS: Diaries :: LA Democrat's diary :: Thu Jan 19th, 2006 at 03:44:55 AM EDT LA DEMOCRAT'S RANKINGS RIGHT NOW DUE TO RECENT EVENTS: 1. FORMER GOVERNOR MARK WARNER LED THE DEMOCRATS INTO VICTORY IN 2005 BY BASICALLY ELECTING TIM KAINE IN VIRGINIA. WARNER PLAYS WELL IN MANY PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AND HAS A PAC THAT IS RAISING TONS OF CASH. FOR EXAMPLE, IN ONE FUNDRAISING EVENT, WARNER RAISED 2.5 MILLION: VERY PRESIDENTIAL WORTHY. BUT THAT WAS IN VIRGINIA, CAN HE DO IT IN CALIFORNIA? 2. HILLARY RETURNS AFTER A NICE SPEECH IN AN AFRICAN AMERICAN CHURCH. FINALLY, HILLARY CALLS THE REPUBLICANS OUT. SHE FACES THE SAME PROBLEMS AS SOME ON THIS LIST OF WHETHER SHE CAN WIN THE GENERAL. WITH WEAK OPPONENTS RUNNING AGANIST HER IN HER RE-ELECTION BID, HILLARY SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF MONEY TO RUN A FORMIBLE DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL BID. BUT WILL SHE BE TOO MUCH A FAVORITE FOR DEMOCRATS IN IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE? IN THE LAST FEW DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES EXCLUDING GORE, THE EARLY FAVORITE DID NOT WIN. CAN HILLARY OVERCOME THE TREND? 3. FEINGOLD PLAYS WELL TO THE LIBERAL WING OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY. ACTIVISTS LOVE HIM, BUT PUNDITS WONDER IF HE HAS THE ABILITY TO WIN THE GENERAL ELECTION. HOWEVER, RUSS HAS LOST DEFINITE COOL POINTS FOR VOTING TO APPROVE JUDGE ROBERTS. WHAT WILL HE DO WITH ALITO? AN ALITO APPROVE WILL DROP HIM FROM THE LD RANKINGS. HOWEVER, HE RETAINS THE 3RD SPOT FOR STOPPING THE CONGRESS FROM PERMANENTLY EMBEDDING THE PATRIOT ACT INTO THE LIVES OF AMERICANS. ***DROPPING FROM THE RANKINGS: BILL RICHARDSON (BASEBALL DRAFTING SCANDAL) AND EVAN BAYH (LACK OF ANY PUBLIC APPEARANCES)

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (55895)	1/23/2006 8:31:20 PM
From: Ron	Respond to of 362466

That is great news. Thanks for the update. Looking forward to a freakin panorama of blue sweeping many more states... a blue tsunami, even, sweeping the flotsam and jetsam out of Washington DC.

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (55895)	1/23/2006 8:58:00 PM
From: Rock_nj	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 362466

Looks very similiar to the 1992 and 1996 Presidential maps. Basically, we're talking about states that are swing states already and could go either way, and with the tide flowing towards the Democrats in 2006/2008 they will turn blue. Arizona has a popular Democratic Governor and Clinton won AZ in 1996, so that might go blue too. A killer Democratic ticket in 2008 would be Warner of VA and Bayh of IN. I know that would be a lot more moderate than a lot of liberal Dems would like, but that ticket would wipe anything the Republicans put forward right off the map. If VA and IN went blue they would take other states in the region with them and it wouldn't even be close.