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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (51179)	1/24/2006 5:00:08 PM
From: shades	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Centex gonna get rich selling to all those workers in Fl 2006 and BETTER in 2007. Yet JPM says things not looking so good in FL - who is smarter? DJ Centex 3Q Net Up 30%; Co Backs FY06, FY07 Views >CTX -2- Centex still sees fiscal 2006 earnings from continuing operations of $9.65 to $9.85 a share, while First Call projects mean earnings of $9.80 a share. In fiscal 2005, Centex had earnings from continuing operations of $7.64 a share. For 2007, Centex also backed its view of $10.75 to $11.75 a share, which is based on the estimated delivery of 43,000 to 44,000 homes. The company plans to host a conference call Wednesday at 10:00 a.m. EDT. Company Web site: centex.com

To: John Vosilla who wrote (51179)	1/24/2006 5:07:23 PM
From: shades	Respond to of 110194

DJ Econ Panel Sees Slower '06 US Growth, Flat Yld Curve . By Michael S. Derby Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Slower U.S. economic growth and a persistently flat yield curve will likely define the economic climate of 2006, a group of economist said Tuesday. The analysts, participating in a panel held by Dow Jones Indexes/STOXX Ltd., agreed that no economic recession was imminent. But the persistence of higher energy prices and ample signs of a slowing housing market all point to a pace of growth in 2006 that falls short of what was seen before. Two of the three panelists, Conference Board Chief Economist Gail Fosler and UBS AG (UBS) head of equity strategy David Bianco, expect to see slower growth. Fosler projected the U.S. gross domestic product will slow by nearly a full percentage point from 2005, to 2.6% in 2006, amid downside risks. Bianco sees growth moving to a 2.5% advance. For the two analysts, that outlook suggests the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates one more time this year, to 4.50%, from 4.25%. Meanwhile, Richard Hoey, chief economist with Mellon Financial Corp. (MEL), said it's more likely the economy will cool in 2007 than the current year. He sees the slowdown coming later mostly because "it will take a lot longer to drain the financial liquidity" the Fed has provided "out of the system." Hoey said this will likely add up to a less certain Fed outlook, in which the central bank may not move consistently toward higher interest rates this year. As part of the discussion, the panelists also tackled the thorny issue of the bond market yield curve and its broader implications for the economy. Spreads between short- and long-dated Treasurys have for some time traded with a very narrow spread, and that relationship has even at times turned negative. This negativity is called an "inversion" of the normally positive slope of yields, and it has a strong historical relationship with economic downturns. Federal Reserve officials have sought to downplay the curve's implications, because of changes in markets and the structure of the economy. But many in the markets have nonetheless seen the curve - coming in a climate where many are already worried about growth - as an ominous development. The Conference Board's Fosler didn't dispute the fact the curve has a lot to say about the economic outlook. But she added that for the spread to send "a clear recession signal" it would have to have spreads between the two-year note and 10-year note persistently between a negative 100 basis points and a negative 150 basis points. Even then, Fosler said it would only point to a recession that would likely come a year or more down the road. Hoey agreed and said the sort of inversion that's been popping up in the Treasurys market recently has been so mild that "it's not going to put the economy in recession." He added that much of the persistence of the low long-term yields that have helped drive the inversion are from a lack of long-duration assets crossed with strong demand for investments of that maturity. In addition to this and other newswires, Dow Jones publishes The Wall Street Journal and its international and online editions, Barron's, the Far Eastern Economic Review, Dow Jones Indexes and the Ottaway group of community newspapers. Dow Jones is co-owner with Reuters Group PLC (RTRSY) of Factiva and with Hearst Corp. of SmartMoney. It also provides news content to CNBC television operations worldwide and to radio stations in the U.S. -By Michael S. Derby, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-4192; michael.derby@dowjones.com