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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (9226)	1/24/2006 6:11:26 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™	Respond to of 12411

Great read on our economy, thanks... I can't prove it,but that's my story and I'm sticking to it. That's funny...<g> GZ

To: robert b furman who wrote (9226)	1/24/2006 10:33:58 PM
From: Patrick Slevin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12411

Historically Americans seem to ignore the cost of energy except in principle. That is to say, everyone talks a good game but still wastes it. When I was a kid gas was a quarter for a gallon, many families (our's included) did not have even one car. People used a push mower to cut their lawns and a shovel instead of a snowthrower. Wasting energy has become a right, not a privilege. Someone in your area may see small changes as the result of population expansion. With the occasional exception of a few years here and there I've always lived within a few miles of where I grew up. The population is stable as a result of being so close to Manhattan, yet without any highways shooting through. Traffic conditions have resulted in the local towns putting in traffic lights on corners where we never would have dreamed even just a few years ago. Efforts to make homes more energy efficient have resulted in some major twists. Asbestos. Homes that are so efficient people get sick. Of course, even the cost of energy to make these homes efficient. Plus the rising cost of the basic commodities to build or improve these homes. Americans rarely cut back on anything. Look at the small things. People today were complaining about a $5 increase in a certain size of an Olive Oil product. I'm sure they still bought it. At first they will conserve it but.... Everything will be getting a lot more expensive. Energy will be a big cause of it but that decline in the buck will exacerbate it. So much of what we buy is imported. Who knows, with everything ballooning in price gasoline may seem like a bargain. What are TIPS, anyway? Is that what I'm going to have to work for after my Home Run portfolio blows up?

To: robert b furman who wrote (9226)	1/25/2006 5:57:29 PM
From: Joe Smith	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12411

Higher oil prices create larger deficitts. Cheap energy? What are you smoking? As long as the economy stays strong, oil prices will too. It will take a recession to bring cheap oil, a worldwide one that includes CHina, etc. Then maybe the stock amrket will rock but from much lower levels. That is if we can adapt to the new realities.

To: robert b furman who wrote (9226)	1/26/2006 1:47:34 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12411

In fact... "US and Yen, Sterling, Euro..." and the yuan currencies are at the center of this years markets, along with gold and oil... not deficits or inflation/deflation worries, nor changes in the Fed. At this time of the year I produce forward looking scenarios on the various directions the markets will take for the year ahead. That year for me begins on the Vernal Equinox on March 20. They're not complete but coming along: One suggests the existing world tensions are high for an unexpected 'significant event' which is built into the rising price of gold and oil and could cause a selloff in equitys. One suggests 2006 and probably 2007 will be strong positive years for stock markets, because of money following the path of least resistance, with decling oil, low interest rates and non market moving events that we aren't already use to...!!! One suggests the breakout from last years range-bound markets having broken higher... will fail later in the year bringing strong selling and a down year. Should have saved the links to the old postings as they've been published here in the past..., they have proven useful. Chip