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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: slacker711 who wrote (49845)	1/25/2006 8:31:17 AM
From: 100cfm	Respond to of 196546

It's like the toaster invitational on the Buy thread. LG with low @75M and RFMD with the high @ 100M+. More Chinese ramblings. China's 3G Gets Green Light JANUARY 24, 2006 Having declared that TD-SCDMA is finally ready for primetime, China is planning to build a nationwide network that will run the home-grown 3G standard. China’s official news agency, Xinhua, reports that the Ministry of Information Industry (MII) has set TD-SCDMA as a national standard and wants a “competent” operator to run a standalone national network. China has been developing the standard to give the advantage to local vendors in the rollout of 3G and avoid paying royalties to foreign companies that hold the patents for other 3G technologies. But it wasn't clear whether the technology would be deployed on a regional basis or nationwide. By issuing official specifications for the standard, the Chinese government has opened the way for its long-awaited 3G licenses to be awarded in the next few months. The country’s four main carriers, China Telecommunications Corp. (NYSE: CHA - message board), China Unicom Ltd. (NYSE: CHU - message board), China Mobile Communications Corp. , and China Netcom Corp. Ltd. (NYSE: CN - message board; Hong Kong: 0906), are among those in the running. China has been holding off its decision on licenses to give the standard time to mature, but it’s running out of time if the country is to get 3G networks up and running to show off at the 2008 Olympics in Beijing as planned. TD-SCDMA suffered numerous teething problems during testing -- from interoperability issues to handset incompatibility. (See Wireless Wumors.) TD-SCDMA is competing against the wideband-CDMA standard used in Europe and the U.S.-favored CDMA2000, and the Chinese government will likely issue licenses for those as well. The official go-ahead gave shares in wireless Chinese vendors a boost Monday. For example, Datang Telecom Technology Co. Ltd. , the major developer of TD-SCDMA equipment, was the biggest gainer on the Shanghai Composite Index, closing up 6.54 percent to 8.96 yuan renminbi (US$1.11), while ZTE Corp. (Shenzhen: 000063 - message board; Hong Kong: 0763) stock rose 3.32 percent to 28.63. Analysts expect carriers to invest up to $12 billion in 3G once the licenses have been issued, and Western vendors have been positioning themselves to get in on the action. Lucent Technologies Inc. (NYSE: LU - message board) most recently announced a collaboration with Datang for interoperability testing and said it’s exploring further opportunities to get into the market. (See Lucent Finds TD-SCDMA Partner.) Other vendors who have teamed up with their local counterparts include Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK - message board), Alcatel (NYSE: ALA - message board; Paris: CGEP:PA), Ericsson AB (Nasdaq: ERICY - message board), and Siemens AG (NYSE: SI - message board; Frankfurt: SIE). (See Nokia Invests in China 3G, Alcatel, Datang Prep TD-SCDMA, Ericsson Bets on Chinese 3G, and Huawei, Siemens Push 3G Deal.) But that enthusiasm is more to do with vendors sucking up to the Chinese government than any real regard for the future of the technology, reckons Heavy Reading senior analyst Patrick Donegan. “Because of the position the Chinese government is taking, leading Western vendors have to be seen to be showing support for TD-SCDMA. But most of them tend to see it as more of a distraction from global standards than a major opportunity for profitable business.” — Nicole Willing, Reporter, Light Reading lightreading.com

To: slacker711 who wrote (49845)	1/25/2006 12:32:40 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196546

The one number I am going to key in on besides WCDMA estimates, is chipset ASP's. We finally saw a bump last quarter and the strength from LG and Samsung in WCDMA and DO in general should give us another bump up....if not, I would have to question what is happening to chipset ASP's or if there is some chipset inventory in the channel. thestreet.com Qualcomm Guidance Critical By Bob Faulkner Street Insight Contributor 1/25/2006 12:08 PM EST Editor's Note: This column by Bob Faulkner is a special bonus for TheStreet.com and RealMoney readers. It appeared on Street Insight on Jan. 24. To sign up for Street Insight, where you can read Faulkner's commentary in real time, please click here. Qualcomm (QCOM:Nasdaq - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) is scheduled to report its fiscal first-quarter 2006 results after the close Wednesday and will have a conference call at 5:30 p.m. EST. Current First Call median estimates are for revenue of $1.75 billion (+26% year over year; +12% quarter over quarter) and pro forma EPS of 38 cents. In the prior quarter, the company reported revenue of $1.56 billion (+40% year over year; +15% quarter over quarter) and pro forma EPS of 33 cents. QCOM's chip business (QCT) posted revenue of $912 million, up 7% year over year and up 19% sequentially. Chip units were up 3% quarter over quarter but average selling prices gained 7% on new WCDMA and EV-DO parts. QTL (royalties) enjoyed another very solid quarter, with revenue of $497 million, up 23% year over year and up 11% quarter over quarter. QCOM collected royalties on 48 million units shipped (in June) with an average selling price of $213. Pro forma gross margin increased by 30 basis points sequentially to 71.7% and operating margin increased a very strong 250 basis points to 44.6%. Much of this gain was from QCT, which saw operating margin increase by 490 basis points sequentially to 29.2%. This was due to the aforementioned mix shift and management holding spending below guidance. The balance sheet showed solid strength following a dip in the fiscal third quarter. Cash increased more than $800 million to $8.7 billion. Cash from operations recovered to a very strong $945 million and there were no repurchases of common stock in the quarter. Accounts receivable decreased by $90 million, reducing days sales outstanding by 11 to 31 days. Inventories decreased $10 million sequentially, dropping days of inventory to 36 days vs. 43 last quarter. While management provided guidance on its last conference call, it updated that guidance with a press release on Dec. 8. Revenue is expected to be at the high end of its original range, $1.67 billion-$1.77 billion (up 7%-14% quarter over quarter). Pro forma EPS are expected to be 38 cents-39 cents vs. the prior quarter's 36 cents-38 cents. Chip shipments should be approximately 47 million vs. the prior range of 46 million-48 million. Eyeing the Upside As I have mentioned in other previews, if you are in any way associated with the handset business, you better have a good December quarter, so QCOM's guidance increase was nothing unusual. However, the interesting question will be the source of the EPS "upside." In each of the last three quarters, it has been due completely or in-part to "other income." On the day prior to the company's update, one of its two put option contracts expired. With the closing price on Dec. 7 slightly above that at the end of the September quarter, chances are pretty good that the company locked in a gain equivalent to at least 2 cents a share. I think you should also look for QCOM to bring discretionary spending in below guidance. Throughout each quarter in fiscal 2005, OPEX spending was consistently well below prior guidance. Once or twice, sure, but four consecutive quarters is little more than sandbagging. Critical to the stock will be management's guidance for the March quarter. Current consensus is for revenue of $1.73 billion, down 1% sequentially from fiscal first-quarter consensus, and pro forma EPS of 36 cents.

To: slacker711 who wrote (49845)	4/25/2006 10:42:56 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 196546

Comments from RFMD CC.... - They are skipping WCDMA transceivers and going straight to HSDPA. They are aiming for an early '08 introduction (not sure if this is commercial shipments or a sampling date). I assume that this means that Qualcomm has a higher attach rate for WCDMA transceivers than they do for CDMA transceivers. - They stated that they see WCDMA handset sales of 120 million this year (this is up from the estimate of 110m-120m that they gave last quarter). Slacker