To: mishedlo who wrote (51253 ) 1/25/2006 1:45:44 AM From: shades Respond to of 110194 More ARCHMAGES - time to bring in Merlin and cast Greater Disrupt Illusion - hehe DJ BOJ Dec 15-16 Minutes: Discussed Various Price Data -2- Board members also actively debated the accuracy of various price data in gauging trends, touching on the core consumer price index, which is the BOJ's current benchmark for monetary policy, and the gross domestic product deflator, the government's preferred price indicator. BOJ officials have recently been signaling that a policy shift could be near, as the core CPI looks set to sustain gains and that conditions for ending the current quantitative easing policy are falling into place. One BOJ member pointed out that if the BOJ were to use the GDP deflator in gauging price trends, "it should take into account that it might be revised frequently and substantially with revisions of GDP statistics. On the CPI, one BOJ board member said that excluding components which tend to show a lot temporary fluctuation would make it easier to grasp the underlying trend. The core CPI currently excludes volatile prices of fresh foods. But many members, while noting that energy prices could be considered as one volatile factor, concluded "it was not appropriate to exclude (energy prices) because the recent rise in energy prices has been largely caused by an increase in the demand of emerging economies and thus was not necessarily a temporary factor." The comments came at a time when the government, in a thinly veiled move to slow the BOJ's hand in ending its current ultra-easy policy, said it was working to compile a new set of CPI data minus food and energy prices. The data was released later that month and showed prices fell in November, even though the core CPI turned up. Govt Insists Deflation Persists But representatives from the government present at the December meeting continued to keep pressure on the BOJ by stressing deflation continued. An official from the Cabinet Office said he hoped the central bank would look at price indicators other than the core CPI, such as the GDP deflator, when judging price trends. "Furthermore, the government would like the Bank to consider presenting a desirable price level," to stabilize market expectations and contribute to overcoming deflation, the Cabinet Office official said. The official from the Ministry of Finance said that the ministry "would like the BOJ to carefully explain to the market and the public that it will persevere with the current quantitative easing policy." Members Discuss Stocks, Forex Central bank policymakers also discussed developments in financial markets, namely the rise in domestic share prices and the yen's decline. Members agreed that financial market conditions now were "extremely accommodative," as can be seen by the stock price gains, yen falls and declining real interest rates. Many members also said that recent stock and foreign exchange market movements "reflected domestic investors' increased risk-taking capacity and inclination to take risks," as well as speculation over growing interest-rate differentials. But in a sign that some saw dangers in keeping monetary policy too accommodative in the face of improving economic and price conditions, one member said there may be risks if market players' expectations for low rates are too strong. "If market participants expected too strongly that extremely low interest rates would be prolonged, the possibility of destabilization of price formation in foreign exchange markets and other financial markets could not be ruled out," one member said, according to the minutes. But a few members said that recent gains in share prices "didn't indicate that an asset price bubble was emerging," as they were based on upward revisions in corporate profits." The minutes also showed Fukuma and Mizuno repeated their joint proposal to lower the amount of liquidity the BOJ pumps into the economy to a range of Y27 trillion to Y32 trillion, from the current Y30 trillion-Y35 trillion range, but were voted down by rest of the board.