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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (17449)	1/25/2006 12:28:12 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25522

RE: "Are the stocks in this industry still treated as cyclical? Yes, I believe they are." The operative word is "treated". I agree that these stocks are "treated" as cyclical by the market. Of course, the meaning of "cyclical" is not the same as it meant in the past and it is continuously morphing to fit the hardly cyclical behavior of the industry. You always fall back to the cyclical nature of the business cycle and its effect on stock prices, particularly the prices of cyclical companies. We agree that there are business cycles and on the resulting volatility of cyclical companies. Capital equipment companies are typically cyclical and volatile. Semi-equip companies are capital equipment and cyclical growth companies and will be affected by a significant worldwide business downturn. The stocks are not "treated" by the market according to this definition of cyclical. The definition the market wants to use and is still using is based on the historical cyclical behavior caused by the semi industry's inefficient modus for capital acquisition. I contend that the industry has changed for a variety of reasons which have been discussed and that procurement since the bubble has been very efficient and will continue to be efficient. Consequently, much of the market behavior with respect to semis and semi equips are based on an erroneous view of cycles and is mistaken.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (17449)	1/25/2006 1:37:53 PM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

The operative word is "treated". One can not add continuously one or two etchers to meet increasing demand but one can purchase a couple dozen new etchers for a new module rather issuing PO for a hundred etchers to fill a complete fab. What's driving downturns for global IC sales? Excessive capacity. The change in capex spending behavior is already reflected in global IC sales. If IC sales could grow low double digit over next couple years it would (to me) represent a radical change. There will be always winter and summer but a business cycle depends on how individuals behave and act. Obviously the individuals that determine spending for SCE equipment (supply) are doing it differently compared to the past. Increasing focus on ROI and increasing efficiency of capital might be one factor influencing the behavior of these individuals. home.comcast.net If you look at AMAT stock price one could suggest Mr. Market is slowly accepting a less cyclical behavior. Of course a less cyclical behavior is detrimental to analyst community finance.yahoo.com