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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: engineer who wrote (49859)1/25/2006 1:21:04 PM
From: slacker711  Respond to of 196547
 
ASPs might be a key, but I would look to margins as well. If they can bring down chip prices, it makes the market expansive, but if they also bring down chip COST, then they can lower prices, increase sales, while maintaining margins.

You are right....previous to the last fiscal year, QCT had done a great job of actually increasing operating margins while ASP's had held steady. We had the double whammy of both declining margins and declining ASP's to deal with last year. I'm hoping we can reverse both trends in '06, but we absolutely have to get at least one of them.

Unfortunately, it is much tougher to forecast gross margins or opex spending. In '04 they increased their R&D expenditures substantially but were able to increase gross margins even faster. They have forecast another big year in R&D spending but it is tough to tell if fab costs will drop at the same rate as they did in '04.

Any thoughts on how the cost side of things will play out this year?

Slacker



To: engineer who wrote (49859)1/25/2006 2:05:10 PM
From: Jim Mullens  Respond to of 196547
 
Engineer, Re: QCOM Q1FY06 Guidance

Summary of key guidance metrics (from my notes) 

 

               Actuals	                    Guidance	
               FY05		            FY06
		Q4 	       Tot	    Q1
			
Handsets
..Q1 (Sept)
....Units(M)	48				52
....ASP		$213		$215		$213

MSM
..Q1 (Sept)					
....Units(M)	40		152		47
....ASP		$22.80	        $21.64	       n/a 	

Oper Mgn
..Q1
....QCT		29.2%		25.9%		~25%
....QTL		90.7%		90.5%		~91%

Core OPS
..Q1 (Sept)
....REV		$1.560B	        $5.690B	        $1.770B
....EPS		$0.32		$1.17		$0.38- .39

GAAP
..Q1 (Sept)
....REV		$1.56B	        $5.673B	        $1.770B
....EPS		$0.32		$1.26		$0.30- .32



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