To: mishedlo who wrote (51499 ) 1/26/2006 7:59:38 AM From: shades Respond to of 110194 Cast DISRUPT ILLUSION - you will continue to disbelieve and gain experience - hehe. =DJ THE SKEPTIC: Embarrassed Repsol Comes Clean By Matthew Curtin PARIS (Dow Jones)--Embarrassing. There's no other word for Repsol's 25% cut in the level of its proven oil and gas reserves. Half of the 1.25 billion barrels of oil equivalent the Spanish company has lost can be blamed on political and legal changes beyond its control in Bolivia and Venezuela. But the rest reflects overoptimistic assumptions and underinvestment in exploration and production. Estimates have mostly come up short in Argentina. Given the company's Argentinean roots, that looks less than competent. Unlike in Venezuela, Repsol can't claim a foreign investor's lack of familiarity with difficult terrain in Argentina. Repsol plays down the longer-term financial impact because much of its output from the three countries is marginally profitable. But the news underscores the weakness of Repsol's upstream activity. Its reserves-replacement rate might have fallen below 20% in 2005 from 32.5% in 2004. The Spanish company depends on upstream cashflow as it diversifies oil and gas production away from South America and bulks up its downstream business. Bolivia and Argentina account for the lion's share of proven reserves and planned output growth for the next four years. Repsol's admission isn't necessarily a repeat of Shell's experience two years ago, which led to a steep fall in the Anglo-Dutch company's stock price, the resignation of top executives, and a big corporate shakeup. Repsol has put on a good show of honesty and action. Chairman Antonio Brufau hosted Thursday's conference call with analysts, something which Shell's former Chairman Philips Watts notoriously failed to do. Brufau gave assurances external auditors are hard at work reassessing Repsol's reserves, and promises full disclosure. He says has revamped internal auditing and oversight procedures. In addition, the political flux in Venezuela and Bolivia, with Evo Morales' victory in the presidential elections and last year's controversial hydrocarbon law, has changed the economics of oil and gas production there. Investors, possibly overly impressed by Repsol's bullish outlook for its downstream business, have neglected to take that extra political and legal risk on board. Apart from sparing investors more nasty surprises, Brufau is under pressure to reduce Repsol's dependence on South American oil and gas and tone up its downstream activities without destroying shareholder value. (END) Dow Jones Newswires January 26, 2006 07:53 ET (12:53 GMT)