To: mishedlo who wrote (51501 ) 1/26/2006 7:00:18 AM From: shades Respond to of 110194 That H&M's costs rose more than sales is cause for concern, but given that much of this must be attributed to China quotas there's perhaps room for leeway, based on the fairly tight control the company has shown in past years. =DJ THE SKEPTIC: H&M Risks Looking "So Last Season" . By Robb M. Stewart A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN LONDON (Dow Jones)--Blame Hennes & Mauritz's (HM-B.SK) decision to drop Kate Moss from a recent ad campaign for the retailer's sluggish growth in the last quarter. Of course, the model's absence had nothing to do with profit and margin falling short of expectations, but throwing Moss' name around always attracts attention. Besides, the prim bosses at the Swedish fashion house still need taking to task for their hypocritical decision. What H&M was in fact stung by was warmer-than-anticipated weather for much of the autumn and an increase in its cost of goods, as textile quotas for China were reintroduced. The weaker sales at the start of the fourth quarter led it to increase resources for marketing, resulted in a higher stock level. So in the context of current market conditions, H&M did well. Sales for the key December period rose 14%, with like-for-like sales up 4% for the month. A gross margin for the quarter of 60% is still commendable and shows slight improvement over a year earlier, even if it was shy of expectations. And the retailer insists it won't be pushed to sell more clothes at a discount in the first quarter, even with stock up 33%. That H&M's costs rose more than sales is cause for concern, but given that much of this must be attributed to China quotas there's perhaps room for leeway, based on the fairly tight control the company has shown in past years. Let's face it, Christmas was far less joyous for many other retailers in Europe and North America. Which is where H&M falls down. Compared with U.S. rival Gap (GPS), which saw a 9% decline in like-for-like sales for December, H&M looks grand. Against Spanish rival Inditex (ITX.MC), though, and things aren't so impressive. H&M has long outshone the Zara, Bershka and Massimo Dutti operator. But in its third quarter Inditex passed H&M in global sales, though it still trails in profitability and doesn't have as healthy an operating margin. What Inditex has done to narrow the gap is perfect a strategy of just-in-time manufacturing in small batches, which means rapid turnover that encourages demand. More importantly, Inditex is pushing much harder - with plans to open about 400 new stores this fiscal year and a similar number next versus H&M's 145 new stores last year and plans to open 150 during the 2005/2006 year. Both retailers have plenty of room for expansion in a host of markets before they near saturation. Indeed, with H&M making about a third of its sales in Germany and Inditex almost half its revenue in Spain, there's need for the pair to broaden their reach. H&M remains the benchmark for the sector in Europe but risks being sidelined by its swifter moving competitor. Inditex has the further advantage for investors of trading a slight discount to its larger rival, backed by expectations the new CEO will move to create a more efficient balance sheet and return surplus cash to shareholders.