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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (45314)	1/26/2006 4:37:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

He sounds like a good banker to me. We need somebody with that kind of guts. But they have an emerging economy and we have a submerging one.

To: mishedlo who wrote (45314)	1/26/2006 5:35:53 PM
From: shades	Respond to of 116555

DJ Fed Study: Less FX Impact On G7 Import, Consumer Prices . WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The influence of foreign exchange movements on both imported goods prices and general consumer inflation has fallen sharply since the 1980s in wealthy Group of Seven countries, according to a Federal Reserve study released Thursday. The Fed study expands on recent economic research showing a widespread and ongoing decline in the "pass-through" of currency fluctuations to inflation. It compares foreign exchange impacts in the G7 countries in the 30 years through 2004. "Our analysis finds a decline in import-price and consumer-price pass-through for almost all of the G7 countries," according to the study by three economists in the Fed's division of international finance. "For about half of these countries the decline in each type of pass-through is significant." In the 1990-2004 period, a 10% currency depreciation would have raised import prices 4% on average in the G7; in the 1975-1989 period it would have raised import prices 7%, the study says. In the more recent 15-year period, a 10% currency depreciation would have had no effect on overall consumer prices in the G7; in the prior 15-year period it would have raised consumer prices nearly 2%, it says. The effects weren't uniform. Italy and France showed much sharper declines in currency pass-through to consumer prices than the rest of the G7. In Germany, foreign exchange pass-through to consumer prices actually increased somewhat since the late 1980s, even as pass-through to German import prices decreased. The Fed economists say more research is needed on the link between pass-through to imported goods prices and pass-through to consumer inflation.

To: mishedlo who wrote (45314)	1/26/2006 5:43:09 PM
From: shades	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

I dont get it Mish - its like whole foods people that pay MORE for the stock because the management gives away FREE MONEY to environmental causes - I have not eaten at a chipotle - but the local mexican boys make a pretty damn good burrito at probably much cheaper prices - is the DENVER effect gonna spread nationwide? For how much longer can Mainstream america pay higher prices just for "atmosphere" and prestige? Could this be a good short in a few months? =DJ UPDATE:Chipotle Stock Price Doubles In 1st Day Of Trading (Updates with closing price information; updates third paragraph with comparison to Baidu.com; adds a new sixth paragraph about the fate of other IPOs with high first-day gains.) By Lynn Cowan Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.'s (CMG) initial public offering spiced up the market Thursday like a three-alarm hot pepper sauce, overshadowing good openings by two other new issues. The Denver-based burrito chain's stock closed at $44 a share on the New York Stock Exchange, double its IPO price of $22 a share. The company, which is majority-owned by McDonald's Corp. (MCD), sold 7.88 million shares of its stock at a price above the expected range set by underwriters Morgan Stanley (MS) and SG Cowen & Co. Chipotle's first-day performance is the best in the U.S. markets since Chinese search engine Baidu.com Inc. (BIDU) went public in August, gaining 354%. "This has probably been the happiest experiment McDonald's has ever tried," says Malcolm M. Knapp, president of New York City-based restaurant consultant Malcolm M. Knapp Inc., of the burger chain's 1998 investment in Chipotle. "I think it's a very strong restaurant concept, it's got good management, they understand food quality and they are in touch with their consumer base." Investor interest in the deal was so great leading up to the offering that underwriters increased the expected price range by $2.50 on Monday, to $18 to $20 a share. The increase, which pushed its highest projected per-share price up by 14%, is the largest high-range increase for a restaurant IPO since P.F. Chang's China Bistro Inc.'s (PFCB) 1998 offering, according to Thomson Financial. Whether Chipotle will be able to hang on to its heady valuation remains to be seen. Baidu.com has given up more than half the percentage gains it made in its debut. The last restaurant stock that had a better first-day performance than Chipotle was Boston Chicken, which went public in 1993. It gained 142% on its first day of trading, but the company later filed for bankruptcy protection in 1998. McDonald's purchased its Boston Markets restaurant chain two years later. Chipotle's financial performance and business strategy have received praise from industry and IPO experts alike, so its stock had been expected to perform well during its debut. The company combines quick cafeteria-style service with made-to-order burritos containing some organic ingredients, and sells its food at a higher price point than most fast-food chains. "They are one of the pioneers and one of the most successful restaurants in the quick-casual category," says Ron Paul, president of Chicago-based restaurant consultant Technomic Inc. Chipotle's total revenue rose 32% to $454.4 million in the first nine months of 2005 compared with the same period of 2004, and its net income tripled to $33.4 million. Comparable-store sales growth at Chipotle rose 8.7% in the first three quarters of 2005. McDonald's, which sold 1.8 million shares in the offering, now owns 88% of Chipotle's combined voting power and 69% of the economic interest in the stock. McDonald's has indicated that at some point it may spin off its remaining ownership in the burrito chain through an outright sale or through a tax-free distribution to its shareholders. Two other initial public offerings - refiner Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP (CLMT) and biopharmaceutical Altus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ALTU) - also had positive debuts Thursday. Indianapolis-based Calumet, which refines crude oil into fuels, lubricants, solvents and waxes, opened at $22.02 on the Nasdaq stock market, up from its IPO price of $21.50. The company sold 6.45 million limited partnership units at the midpoint of its expected range set by underwriter Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS). The stock closed at $21.75, up 1%, after reaching a high of $22.50 earlier in the day. Calumet, like many energy industry limited partnerships that have gone public in the last year, is planning a generous dividend - the proposed minimum payout is $1.80 a year, or a yield of 8% at the IPO price. The company's sales in the first nine months of 2005 grew 128% to $895 million compared with the same period of 2004. But higher interest expense and an unrealized loss on derivatives dragged the company to a net loss of $20.8 million in the first three quarters of 2005, compared with net income of $18.8 million. Altus, based in Cambridge, Mass., opened at $15.26 a share, up from its IPO price of $15 a share. The company, which is developing treatments for cystic fibrosis and growth hormone deficiency, sold 7 million shares at the midpoint of its price range set by underwriters Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER) and Morgan Stanley (MS). It finished the day at $16.82 a share, up 12%. Two other IPOs that were expected to begin trading by Thursday were delayed. Iomai Corp., a Maryland-based biopharmaceutical company that is developing needle-free vaccine patches, will likely price early next week, while SGX Pharmaceuticals Inc., a San Diego biotech, could price Thursday night.