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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (51698)	1/27/2006 12:52:24 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Look at the last line of the table on page 2. This is the "not seasonally adjusted" number for December. Forget how many months of inventory that is supposed to be, the raw number is 525,000 homes for sale. Just look at that column and the trend is obvious. The inventory is highest of the last 12 months, up by almost 100,000 than Dec 04. If you go to page 5, you can see that out of the 525k inventory, 301k are under construction and 114k are already completed. Now compare that to the first column on the left. The headline of the release said we have a 4.9 months inventory. For that to happen, we pretty much need 107,142k sales per month for the next 5 months. Can that happen? Yes, but that would require as strong a market in 06 as we had in 05.