SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Ramsey Su who wrote (51725)1/27/2006 1:41:56 PM
From: shades  Respond to of 110194
 
Of all the worthless government numbers that move the market, I would say New Home Sales win the Thin Air Award of statistics.

In the world of illusions and revisions - that is a powerful statement Ramsey - the rebuttle to the CBO numbers last night by some Dems was making a strong case for how revisions and illusions span many areas of our business gubbment complex. It was downright scary!

In his memoirs 20 years from now Bush will write how thousands dying in new orleans was a GOOD thing - got the levees fixed - killed off a lot of weak and old citizens - and with the rebuilding of nawlins - gave a lot of jobs in a time when the economy needed it!



To: Ramsey Su who wrote (51725)1/27/2006 2:14:02 PM
From: shades  Respond to of 110194
 
Ramsey where is the innovation - they are really LATE to the party eh? huh??

=DJ 2nd UPDATE: AOL Offers Broadband In Bid To Keep Customers

(Updates with company and analyst comments starting in fifth paragraph.)


By Roger Cheng

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Time Warner Inc.'s (TWX) AOL unit will begin offering high-speed Internet service as it attempts to retain its rapidly deteriorating base of dial-up customers.

While it was recently considered an online advertising and traffic darling by Internet giants Google Inc. (GOOG), Yahoo Inc. (YHOO) and Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), AOL continues to lose customers and revenue in its core dial-up Internet access business. The move to offer a high-speed product via cable and telecommunication partners, announced Friday, illustrates its willingness to play some defense.

In early February, the Internet service provider will offer AOL High Speed - a package bundling broadband Internet from the likes of BellSouth Corp. (BLS) or Verizon Communications (VZ) with AOL features such as security and exclusive videos.

In doing so, it hopes to retain control of its customers as more migrate to a faster connection. AOL had 20.1 million U.S. members at the end of the third quarter, down 678,000 from the second quarter.

"When we move our customers to broadband, we see a significant improvement in the economics of those customers," said Joe Redling, president of AOL's access business. "The migration component will really be a key driver in stabilizing AOL's membership base."

The deal was hailed by some company observers.

"We view AOL's nascent DSL initiative as positive," Spencer Wang, an analyst with J.P. Morgan, said in a research note. He warned that AOL would take a near-term hit in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, but that its long-term value will increase.

The analyst doesn't own a stake in Time Warner, but his firm maintains an investment banking relationship with the company.

As an Internet service provider, AOL doesn't own the pipe that connects the network to the home. As a result, it can't offer broadband services unless it buys capacity from phone or cable companies and resells it. While AOL once resold high-speed Internet service, it more recently referred its customers to local providers in exchanged for a "bounty" fee.

The new offering represents a firm partnership with the high-speed Internet service providers. Redling said the new deal will give AOL a share of the monthly fees. He declined to comment further, noting that the agreements varied with each partner.

"The relationship has expanded from transactional to strategic," Redling said.

The service will be priced between $25.90 and $29.90 a month, depending on the territory. The dial-up connection, by comparison, costs $23.90 a month.

For now, Time Warner Cable is the only cable company that is partnering with AOL. Redling said the company is in talks to sign on more partners and that announcements would come shortly.

While Time Warner Cable competes in the same region as Verizon, Redling said its sister company was supportive of the relationship.

"I think there's enough to go around," he said.

While critics may complain that this kind of deal should've been struck years ago, Redling said that it took the current competitive environment for broadband service providers to be open to a partnership.



To: Ramsey Su who wrote (51725)1/27/2006 2:16:55 PM
From: shades  Respond to of 110194
 
The increase was caused mainly by surging prices for ethanol, a fuel made from sugar cane that is widely used in Brazilian cars. Also, food prices continued to rise.

Huh? I thought ethanol was the saving grace to HIGH prices - hehe

DJ Brazil Real Closes Stronger On Foreign Inflows

.

SAO PAULO (Dow Jones)--The Brazilian real closed stronger against the U.S. dollar Friday as foreign capital continued to pour into the country as investments in the Brazilian stocks pushed the local bourse, the Bovespa, to record highs.

The real closed at BRL2.217 per dollar, stronger from Thursday's close of BRL2.231 per dollar.

The real's appreciation was driven by foreign capital flowing into the Brazilian Stock Exchange, which appeared poised to top the record high close set only Thursday. In addition, the real was boosted by exporter dollars and proceeds from recent overseas bond issues by Brazilian companies.

Earlier Friday, Brazilian beef exporter Friboi completed an issue of overseas bonds totaling $200 million, according to a person close to the operation told Dow Jones Newswires. Friboi raised the issue from an initial launch of $150 million because of strong demand.

On Thursday, steel holding company Vicunha Siderurgica SA completed an issue of $450 million in perpetual bonds via its National Steel SA subsidiary.

Vicunha was expecting a launch of $400 million, but increased the offer due to strong demand. Vicunha Siderurgica is the holding company that owns a controlling stake in Brazilian steel maker Companhia Siderurgica Nacional (SID), or CSN.

Investors also shrugged off two reports about growing price inflation.

Sao Paulo's Fipe research foundation said that the pace of consumer inflation in Sao Paulo, Brazil's largest city, picked up in the four weeks ended Jan. 23 to the highest level since October 2005 because of accelerating education costs.

Fipe, which is associated with the University of Sao Paulo, said its consumer price index rose 0.62% in the four weeks ended Jan. 23, compared with an increase of 0.59% in the four weeks ended Jan. 15. The results were in line with market expectations, which pegged the rate between 0.52% and 0.65%.

Also Friday, the Brazilian Census Bureau, or IBGE, released the government's official mid-month inflation report. Inflation as measured in the IPCA-15 accelerated to 0.51% in the Dec. 14 to Jan. 13 period, up from 0.38% in the Nov. 15 to Dec. 13 period, IBGE said.

The increase was caused mainly by surging prices for ethanol, a fuel made from sugar cane that is widely used in Brazilian cars. Also, food prices continued to rise.

The result came in line with market expectations, which pegged inflation to increase between 0.40% and 0.60%.

Indicators of rising inflation have caused concerns that the Brazilian Central bank would take a more conservative tack in easing monetary policy. The bank has reduced the Selic base interest rate at five-consecutive meetings, to 17.25% currently from a high in August of 19.75%.

The inflation reports were the first since Thursday's release of minutes from the central bank's Jan. 18 meeting. Central bankers said that the recent rises in inflation were temporary and 2006 inflation projections remained below targets.

Meanwhile, the central bank said that it sold $138.2 million in foreign exchange-linked debt swaps on offer at an auction Friday. The bank said it sold only 2,950 of a total of 4,250 contracts offered in the latest of a series of auctions begun in late November.

The swaps were offered with four maturities between August 2006 and July 2008. The auction took place between 1400 GMT and 1500 GMT.

The contracts offered Friday, known as "reverse swaps," allow investors to exchange dollar positions for government paper linked to domestic interest rates.

The bank also purchased dollars from the market at a snap auction late Friday afternoon at BRL2.209 per dollar.

The central bank began purchasing dollars at near-daily snap auctions in October as a way to build foreign reserves. It then restarted the reverse-swap auctions in November, after previously halting the practice in March.

Brazil's risk spread as measured by the J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus tightened slightly during the day to a spread of 257 basis points over U.S. Treasurys as of 1845 GMT. Brazil's benchmark 2040 bond was up 0.550 at 130.900.

-By Jeff Fick, Dow Jones Newswires; (55 11) 3145-1481; jeff.fick@dowjones.com



To: Ramsey Su who wrote (51725)1/27/2006 2:19:24 PM
From: shades  Respond to of 110194
 
=DJ Strong New Home Sales Don't Rattle Mortgage Investors

.
By Danielle Reed
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Stronger than expected new home sales for December don't necessarily signal continued froth in the housing market, and won't change the overall outlook for mortgage bonds for 2006, analysts said.

Early Friday, the Commerce Department reported that in December, new home sales rose 2.9% from November to a seasonally-adjusted rate of 1.27 million units, above the median consensus expectation among Wall Street economists of about 1.23 milllion units.

The data contrasted with Wednesday's existing home sales report from the National Association of Realtors, which showed a drop of 5.7% in December, the third straight monthly decline.

But analysts said the data aren't necessarily contradictory.

The data "aren't extraordinarily strong," said David Montano, head of mortgage-backed securities research for J.P. Morgan. The December new home sales number follows a 9.2% decline in November from the prior month, for one thing. Also, the December number is "right in line" with the 12-month average for 2005 of 1.28 million units, he noted.

In addition, mortgage-backed securities analysts - who are concerned with the implications housing data can have for the speed at which mortgages are paid off early due to home sales - tend to look more closely at existing home sales rather than at new home sales data.

There are a few reasons for this, and one being simply that the sample studied for existing home sales is about six times as large as the one for new home sales.

Also, existing home sales, to use a retail analogy, are "more like same-store sales," said Walt Schmidt, manager of mortgage products and strategy for FTN Financial Capital Markets in Chicago.

In other words, studying new home sales as an indicator of housing activity is a bit like looking at new branch store openings as an indicator of retail activity. Analysts get a sense from existing home sales how "the current stock is turning over," Schmidt said. "That gives you a better sense" of the speed at which mortgages are likely to be paid off ahead of time, which affects mortgage bond pricing.


So even with the above-consensus new home sales number, analysts still reckon that the housing market will still slow in 2006. "Projecting out over the coming year, with affordability declining, we expect a modest decline in new home sales for 2006," Banc of America Securities said in a research note after the report was released.

"Our view is definitely a slowdown in 2006," said Montano. Home price appreciation was more than 12% in 2005, but in 2006 "we're expecting half that for the year."

-By Danielle Reed, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-2039; danielle.reed@dowjones.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

January 27, 2006 13:07 ET (18:07 GMT)