To: orkrious who wrote (51761 ) 1/27/2006 3:45:44 PM From: shades Respond to of 110194 =DJ Bk Of Mexico Signals End In Sight To Interest Rate Cuts . By Anthony Harrup Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES MEXICO CITY (Dow Jones)--The Bank of Mexico sent out a reminder Friday that its monetary easing cycle has an end in sight, but several analysts said they don't see any reason to adjust their interest rate forecasts. The central bank cut the overnight rate by 50 basis points to 7.75%, making its sixth cut in six months and its second straight reduction of half a percentage point. The cut was widely expected in the market given core inflation at a record-low 3%, slightly sluggish economic growth, and the strength in the peso. While noting that the inflation outlook is more favorable than a year ago, the central bank continued to warn of inflation risks and said that in the coming months it sees "limited room for further reductions in the monetary restriction." There was a slight reaction in the market. The yield on 10-year bonds due 2014 fell six basis points, but quickly pulled up and was off one basis point to 8.04%. The peso, which opened fractionally stronger at MXN10.4995, rallied to below MXN10.44 and was at MXN10.4550 at 1900 GMT. Alonso Cervera, an economist at Credit Suisse, said the Bank of Mexico was stating the obvious about an eventual end to the rate cuts, "even though some people may have been surprised to see it in writing." Cervera reiterated his forecast of two more 25-basis-point cuts in the overnight rate - one in February and one in March - and then a break, with no more easing before the July 2 presidential and congressional elections. Clyde Wardle, a currency strategist at HSBC, said he thinks it less likely that the overnight rate will reach 7% in the first half of the year, although there's still room for two more cuts of 25 basis points before a pause. "I think they're keen to get the cuts done earlier rather than later, given the political calendar," Wardle said. With dollar inflows still strong - oil prices remain buoyant and remittances from Mexicans living abroad continue to set records - the peso has moved back below MXN10.50 to the dollar for the first time since early December, and is at the same level it was in July 2004. In a report Friday, London-based TD Securities said it sees the current peso strength as a result of "exuberant emerging market sentiment rather than fundamental improvement." Although the central bank statement "notes that scope for further easing in the next few months is limited, we continue to expect more rate cuts going forward, bringing the reference rate to as low as 7% by mid-year," TD Securities said. BBVA Bancomer, in a report Friday before the central bank decision, saw things that way. "Based on general inflation staying below 4%, and core inflation oscillating around 3%, the overnight rate has the potential to reach 7% in the next six months," the bank said. -By Anthony Harrup, Dow Jones Newswires; (5255) 5080-3450, anthony.harrup@dowjones.com