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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BUGGI-WO who wrote (185595)	1/28/2006 6:47:46 PM
From: brushwud	Respond to of 275872

With Q4 as an forward indicator and with the knowledge of the cost structure for 2006, whats your guess in which AMD could be able to increase their cash position? I usually try not to make this sort of guess in public, but sort of backed myself into a corner. The cash from the secondary, net of the retired 7.75%, should be more than $300 million. My previous estimate was $70 million of additional paid-in capital in Q4, so because of the higher stock price this year, there could easily be $100 million of additional paid-in capital in Q1 (in cash, not counting the convertibles). Then there's Q1's net profit, minus the difference between new capital investment and depreciation, leading to another $100 million. So cash could be up by $500 million, except... On the liabilities side, the current portion of long-term debt should be down. But any cash they use to pay down other current liabilities will also improve their current ratio. So my rough guess would be $2 billion cash (more than $200 million increase), $4 billion current assets, and $1.8 billion current liabilities. (This allows for some growth in the various components like inventories, receivables, and payables.) Then maybe the third significant digits work out in their favor for a current ratio of over 2.25.