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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (51977)	1/29/2006 8:42:52 PM
From: bond_bubble	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I just saw the China's Mega dam in discovery channel. They say that it will have 32 generators by 2009 and 16 by 2006 end. The 32 generators will be equivalent to 18 muclear plants and enough to power Boston, NYC and Washington D.C - or 10% of China's electricity requirement!! I dont know the total arithmatic, but this dam should be a producing "some" reduction in oil demand. BTW, even Jim Rogers says, if there is a recession, commodities can initially fall. But he wouldnt get out because he feels it will start going up after that and he wont be able to time it accurately. So, I think, oil can go up higher from here - but when the recession hits, it will fall (may be in Euros and not in USD?). Are you saying, the speculation in oil is negligible? I thought you were guessing that oil will go high because of demand. If ever there is such a "trend" wouldn't there be speculation? Only in a stagnant growth, speculation is likely to be unprofitable. Isnt it? My opinion is that, oil will rise until recession hits. After that it will not fall off cliff - but slowly it will fall. It could rise little bit in USD - but it should fall against Euro/gold/Yuan - when the recession hits. Once the depression hits severely (when most of the credits are extinguished - so that there are not much credits to fan inflation) oil should fall a lot in USD as well.