If the remainder of Bush's presidency hinges on one SOTU speech, he is in trouble.
Bush Will Use `Bully Pulpit' in Bid to Recover From 2005 Damage
Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush gives his State of the Union speech tomorrow night facing an unpopular war, an ethical cloud shrouding his fellow Republicans and a midterm election that will decide whether the party keeps control of Congress.
The president has one formidable weapon available to meet these challenges: the ``bully pulpit'' of his office.
Tomorrow's address will provide clues to how Bush will use that weapon to persuade voters to stay with him and his party. A strong speech may set up a year that reverses the political damage of 2005, when setbacks drove his public approval ratings to the lowest of his presidency. Another such year, culminating in a Republican defeat in November, would reduce Bush's effectiveness in his last two years in office and may diminish his entire presidency.
The president must put his ``personal leadership'' behind the party's agenda in his speech, says Senator Jeff Sessions, an Alabama Republican. ``This is the world of the constant campaign, and he let down a little while after the last election.''
If Bush pushes his agenda, Sessions says, ``people will listen less to carping and the stuff about'' lobbyist Jack Abramoff, who has pleaded guilty to corrupting lawmakers and other public officials.
Weak Standing
Bush enters the sixth year of his presidency politically weaker than the country's most recent two-term presidents, Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan. Bush's approval rating of 43 percent in a Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times survey last week compares with a Clinton rating of 68 percent in a Los Angeles Times poll in January 1998 and Reagan's 65 percent in January 1986.
The president still possesses the political tools to turn things around, Sessions says. ``When Bush is focused, he can give candidates a big boost,'' he says. ``Hurricane Katrina hit him hard and it got him off-message. But he can still draw a crowd, he's good on the stump and he can re-energize the coalition that got him 51 percent of the vote'' in 2004.
At stake in the November elections are all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, where Democrats need a net gain of 15 seats to take control, and 33 seats in the Senate, where Democrats need a net gain of six seats to take control.
``This State of the Union is particularly important for Bush because it tells us what Republicans will run on in the fall, besides safety and security,'' says Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, a nonpartisan newsletter based in Washington. ``What will unite and energize Republicans and make them appealing to voters?''
Democratic House?
Rothenberg says Democrats will gain seats in the fall and could conceivably take control of the House, which would make Representative Nancy Pelosi of California the House speaker and Democrats the heads of House committees.
``A year ago, the idea of Democrats winning the House should not have been taken seriously,'' Rothenberg says. ``At the moment, it is unlikely to difficult, but not impossible, and we are moving in the direction of increasing Democratic potential.''
The Senate is a different story. The recent decision by Republican Senator Trent Lott of Mississippi to seek a fourth term decreases the Democratic chances of a takeover. ``Right now, the Democrats could gain from two to four seats, but for them to get six seats is really tough to imagine,'' Rothenberg says.
Changing Landscape
Rothenberg says tomorrow's speech may help determine whether the Republicans retain control of Congress or lose it. ``The president will lay out an agenda, talk about priorities, try to get on the right side of some issues, and that could be important for Republicans in changing the political landscape, which is now significantly tilted toward Democrats,'' he says.
While incumbent presidents are usually sought out by members of their party at re-election time, presidents with sagging poll numbers get fewer requests for campaign appearances. ``The president will be willing to help'' Republican candidates, but ``in each case the person will have to decide what to do,'' says Senator Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina, chairwoman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. ``Campaigns are not run from Washington and not won in Washington.''
Michael Feldman, a political consultant who was an adviser to former Vice President Al Gore in his 2000 presidential campaign, says Bush ``is recovering from the worst years of his presidency'' and has little time to get things back on track.
`Narrow Window'
``There is a very narrow window of opportunity for the president to have attention focused on himself,'' Feldman says. ``Soon there will be the November elections and then there will be competing voices from the Republicans running for president in 2008. Both of these will drown out the bully pulpit.''
It's natural for a second-term president to face questions from his own party on whether he's acting in his own interests or the party's, Feldman says.
``Republicans are not entirely sure if he is an asset or not,'' he says. ``They wonder if he is embracing his own agenda or theirs.'' Immigration policy is one example, Feldman says. The president has proposed a guest-worker program, which some in his party oppose as an ``amnesty'' for undocumented immigrants.
Jenny Backus, a Democratic strategist, says she expects Bush will try to ``drive up the terror numbers and play to the fear factor'' in his speech. ``I think this State of the Union will have some small throwaway policies on health care and energy, but will be by and large the return of the `axis of evil,''' she says, referring to Bush's description of Iraq, Iran and North Korea in his 2002 State of the Union address.
Underrating Bush
Democrats often underrate Bush, says Gina Glantz, a Democrat who managed former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley's presidential campaign in 2000 and was a senior aide to former Vermont Governor Howard Dean in his 2004 campaign. ``He always surprises me in his ability to speak to the public in a way the public grabs hold of,'' she says. ``He has spent the last month traveling around the country to set the stage for Tuesday night. He is saying: 'Look, I am not sitting in the White House spying on people, I am out talking to people.'''
Glantz believes much of the criticism that Democrats direct toward Bush doesn't touch the daily lives of most Americans. ``People are not worried about spying or corruption'' or the nomination of Samuel A. Alito Jr. to the U.S. Supreme Court, she says. ``They are worried about being in debt, paying the mortgage, health care and good schools for their kids. Bush will say to them: 'I am strong and will make your life better.' That is what people are interested in.'' |
