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Gold/Mining/Energy : Exxon Mobil (XOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (106)	1/31/2006 7:22:44 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 585

[XOM] Super-cap stock to own for 2006 What does that mean? It outperforms GE? I think supercaps will not outperform until investors reach for their parachutes, and when that happens, you will probably be better off long gold or short the market. We continue to see Exxon Mobil as a superior low-beta portfolio offset to our top high-beta domestic oil/E&P/R&M picks. Analyst forgets to consider XOM's pitiful alpha. We estimate a 35% total return to shareholders to an $81 traditional peak value...By way of comparison, we see the super-cap oils on average having +10%/+37% upside potential, and the domestic oil and E&P group having -17% downside risk/+12% upside potential to traditional mid-cycle/peak values, respectively. Does analyst include domestic gas plays like CHK and XTO in the E&P tables? If so, how do they fare? Sam