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Strategies & Market Trends : January Effect 2006 -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: RockyBalboa who wrote (69)2/1/2006 9:19:01 AM
From: Q.  Respond to of 79
 
Midland:

I wonder what distinguished your picks from mine.

The market caps were generally about the same.

Two possible differences: stock price and price movement at end of year. I'd guess the latter might be responsible. Tell me what you think about this:

Price:
My picks were mostly below $1, which is scary because of the delisting risk, but tends to cause bigger price movements up or down. My median price was about 0.9, yours was about 1.5. I doubt if that accounts for the difference in our returns, though, because when I graphed your returns vs. stock price I didn't see any correlation of return and price.

Price movement:
I required that the stock go down in November and December, as an indication of tax-loss selling, and I tried to eliminate stocks that went down as a result of news in late December. See these three-month charts for my picks:
finance.yahoo.com
Looking at similar charts for your picks, I'm wondering if that could have made a difference:
finance.yahoo.com



To: RockyBalboa who wrote (69)2/1/2006 10:02:58 PM
From: RockyBalboa  Respond to of 79
 
Keep 'em coming: NABI gets FDA fast track designation for its Hepatitis C drug; stock up to 4.44 afterhours. ...



To: RockyBalboa who wrote (69)2/7/2006 11:46:00 PM
From: RockyBalboa  Respond to of 79
 
I see my first 3-digit gainer here: Cancervax, CNVX the cash-rich company which merged with Micromet. Stock briskly trading and now at 3.12. At 1.30s and nearly trading at half the cash value, no one was interested...fully diluted the market cap will stand about 300 Mio including the micromet shares.

Message 22041232

On another note, Raindance, a january side bet and perennial dog suddenly jumped after it received a takeover proposal for $2.70. I kissed the stock goodbye.