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Politics : American Presidential Politics and foreign affairs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter Dierks who wrote (3580)	1/31/2006 11:59:08 PM
From: Peter Dierks	Respond to of 71588

Blunt Criticism Will the State of the Union influence the House leadership race? BY BRENDAN MINITER Tuesday, January 31, 2006 12:01 a.m. EST Presidents don't normally weigh in on congressional leadership elections. But tonight George W. Bush will take center stage in the well of the House to deliver his fifth State of the Union Address. Whether he intends to or not, the agenda Mr. Bush lays out will help determine who becomes the next House majority leader and in turn what legislative victories are possible this year. In tactical politics, this may be the most significant State of the Union since President Clinton used the speech to regain his footing in 1999 before his impeachment trial. And judging by the president's news conference last week, Mr. Bush's speech is likely to come as a blow to the status quo candidate for majority leader, Rep. Roy Blunt of Missouri. Mr. Blunt has been the interim majority leader since Tom DeLay was forced to step aside in October, and during this brief stint in power, he hasn't shown himself to be a bold leader or even to have demonstrated an ability to keep a fractious Republican caucus united. It's a harsh but accurate verdict on his ability to lead that after weeks of trolling for votes, Mr. Blunt has not been able to win public endorsements from at least half of the Republicans in the House and therefore gain a lock on becoming majority leader. The real blow to watch for in Mr. Bush's speech tonight, however, will be in how bold the president's proposals turn out to be. Already we know Mr. Bush will make health-care reform the centerpiece of his speech. If his proposals amount to tinkering on the margins, Mr. Blunt will likely breathe a deep sigh of relief. For it is reform--bold, serious, far-reaching reform--that is his biggest obstacle. But another pitfall awaits Mr. Blunt: lobbying and spending reform. Mr. Blunt is unable to deliver a sharp break from the DeLay policies of the past because he is a part of the DeLay machine that has run the House for the past couple of years. He is so hardwired into the lobbying machine that Mr. DeLay used so effectively to win votes by raising money for other members that he married into it: Mr. Blunt met his current wife when she was a top lobbyist for the tobacco industry. He has also been a vocal champion of earmarks, additions to spending bills that members use to direct pork back to their districts. A few years ago Mr. Blunt went so far as to secured a $500,000 earmark for restoration of the historic Gillioz Theatre in Springfield, Mo. The theater's complex, which includes a few other buildings in addition to the Gillioz, was then renamed after Ronald Reagan (who as president vetoed legislation for containing too many earmarks). If Mr. Bush uses the word "earmark" at all, as he did in his press conference Thursday, look for a wince to shoot across Mr. Blunt's face. That pain will be a reflection of how many Republican members are still undecided in the leadership race. If those members, as they return to Washington, base their decision on earmarks, Mr. Blunt is likely finished. The other two candidates in the race have much more solid credentials. John Shadegg of Arizona has made abolishing earmarks, or at least providing transparency so we all know who is abusing the system, a central theme of his campaign. The other candidate, John Boehner of Ohio, has famously refused to partake of earmarks and boasts that there isn't a single building or highway named after him in his district. Counts vary, but there could still be dozens of undecided congressmen. The Republican Study Committee--a bloc of more than 100 of some of the more conservative House members--met in Baltimore yesterday and heard from all three candidates. The entire caucus will hear from them tomorrow, though thanks to Mr. Blunt members will not be allowed to ask questions of the candidates at the meeting. And the vote comes Thursday afternoon, so there is still plenty of time for voters outside the Beltway to let their voices be heard inside of Washington. Mr. Miniter is assistant editor of OpinionJournal.com. His column appears Tuesdays. opinionjournal.com