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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: shades who wrote (52474)	2/2/2006 8:01:15 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

from Jim Turk via Aaron Task at TSCM thestreet.com Apropos to Richard Suttmeier's column on gold (and oil), I just had a meeting with James Turk, founder of GoldMoney.com and author of The Freemarket Gold & Money Report. James was here to do an interview for our "Street Watch" webcast service; unfortunately, we're experiencing technical difficulties on that front but he and I did get a chance to chat at length. The highlight was his contention that gold is not heading for a short-term correction, as even some long-term fans of gold (like Barry R.) believe; quite the contrary. He believes we are "in the beginning of a 'melt-up' in gold" and that "we might see $850 per ounce before the end of March." Turk's short-term call is based on a view that crossing the $500 barrier was a major technical breakout for gold that is attracting investors previously under- or un-invested in the metal, which was recently trading around $577 per ounce. Middle Eastern investors typically gravitate toward the metals (esp when they are flush with cash, as they are now) and the rising geopolitical tensions with Iran, ongoing war with Iraq, and Hamas victory are certainly helping that trend, says Turk, who worked in Abu Dubai earlier in this career. He also cited a new research note from French bank Chevreux which forecasts gold/mining stocks are "poised for and unprecedented rise" due to a coming short squeeze. The report, which can be found here, has a "mid-cycle" (undetermined time frame) of $2000 per ounce. On the long-term fundamental front, Turk is bullish on gold mainly because he is extremely bearish on the dollar based on the structural deficit issues so many have discussed, including Turk in his 2004 book "The Coming Collapse of the Dollar." Fyi, Turk was reluctant to discuss specific stocks for disclosure reasons but said he would avoid hedged producers and focus on the pure plays such as Newmont, Gold Corp and Gold Fields. He also believes the GLD is not a replacement for owning the physical metal, which he thinks should supplant the cash component of a typical bond/stocks/cash allocation.