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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: skinowski who wrote (52717)	2/5/2006 12:23:12 PM
From: shades	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Mish was on C-span today? Missed it. Now, I remember that Uh - we had one of our SI boys going toe to toe with the ivy league ivory tower establishment and you weren't there to support him! Shame on you! hehe bachelors in civil engineering J6P underdog socking it hard to the book pushing PHD. It was a battle of titans - makes the superbowl pale in comparison - a veritble slug fest of currency woes and methane gas! It smelled as shitty as the crap coming out of Corsi's mouth! I was sitting intently agonizing over the action in my lawn chair sucking down my popcorn and prune juice - and then when Mish read Corsi's inside book flap about centrifugal forces making the oil well up from magic places inside the GAIA earths pregnant belly ewancient.lysator.liu.se I choked on my popcorn and shot prune juice out my nose I laughed so hard!! Rodney dangerfield got nothign on him! HAHA I never seen someone take a punch like that since mike tysons last knockout! Corsi was bloodied and battered! ballardboxing.tripod.com being mentioned somewhere... I live in a fog. As long as no lights are heading fast your way! I am not an economist Sure you are - its easy if you try - just talk a little about GDP and ricardian rent and trade - instant economist. - but even advanced professionals seem to fight like cats and dogs over these issues. Thats more fun than always agreeing on everything eh? There is no consensus, and, I suspect, no real understanding. How boring it would be to have gods brain and know it all eh? Xmas would not surprise you anymore. Its all about the talking heads running their chatterbox - why you want to bring in concepts like consensus and understanding? I do know a couple of things - reasons to keep the USD as a reserve currency are varied - and there are many of them. New Asian tigers are on the roll, and they simply cannot afford to rock the boat. If the Dollar goes too low, and America cuts down on buying, they may face implosions, depressions, civil wars, etc. Not good. So, they have both economic and political reasons as to why the show must go on. Social stability or instability to keep the gubbment in power - I think that is the ultimate goal of all incumbents. Iran and chavez like to mix it up to keep themselves in power - but other places like to keep it cool and slow. To each gubbment his own eh? Otoh, the fact of the matter is that we import things - and they accept in return (in the end) our bonds. The interest alone is becoming a major problem, and imo it's insane to think that this situation is sustainable. I once saw my ex brother in law marry my sister - how he stayed with her for the next 7 years of her increasing drama was a miracle to me - job of the bible didn't have patience that this guy had. How did it keep going and going - energizer bunny lost juice way before him. lila.joemaller.com What can be done about it? This may sound terribly pessimistic, but there might be nothing that can be done. Yah a couple here are saying that - didnt mish utter - point of no return? tang.mspencer.net Bush wants more engineers -- but, for each new one of ours, there is literally a crowd of engineers being trained in other countries. A Flat Earth level playing field is not to our advantage at this time, when a couple of billion new players are in the process of joining the game. Think of the big picture though - billions of new engineers - regardless of country of origin will hopefully make the world better for us all with new knowledge and research. I am hoping for life altering genetic research and new medicine and new holodecks and flying cars - and moon bases and spaceships - etc etc - I dont care if it is a chinese Chen that builds it or a German or what have you. Right now the asians are making great strides in carbon nanotube research - this can get us a space elevators and new memory for our computers and such. Feynman said the next big revolution was the nanoscale. Optimism and faith in American ingenuity - and in our infinite ability to solve problems - are important parts of our culture, and up until now optimists were right..... and I hope they will continue to be right. However, past performance does not guarantee future results. I meet people here on SI who tell me their daughters watch Fear Factor and are girly girls sucking it down la vida loca at the star bucks - and you are talking about engineers that pour over years of hard learning in boring books to be called NERD PATROL by the prez - r u nutz? hehe Let me show you what the PREZ really believes: allhatnocattle.net Look at his daughter, drunk and humping another chick - la vida loca BABY! NERDS SUCK you dork! Who got time to read an engineering journal scotty - give me another ICEHOUSE BABY! That china boy will figure it out!

To: skinowski who wrote (52717)	2/5/2006 1:48:54 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

There are lots of reasons but the two most important ones are trade relationships and acting to depress the value of one's currency (make it weaker) to boost exports. In the case of China, China keeps extra reserves out of fear of "hot money flight". There is a lot of US$ sitting in China waiting for "the big repeg" or whatever. There is legitimate fear on behalf of China that if such a repeg happened, there would be a mass exodus of RMB to US$ taking profits and leaving. China does not want a currency crisis. The Iran oil bourse is simply not on the list. It is unfortunate that we did not have time to explore this area. Mish