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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (4042)	2/6/2006 7:52:31 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 217743

I don't see Hugo Chavez as wanting a "showdown" with the US- just be annoying, score political points at home and in the rest of South America, and try to improve his financial position. Occasionally he takes time of from his main job to insult Mexico. Got keep in practice.... politicalaffairs.net There aren't enough refineries that can or want to take the heavy Vz oil, and a lack of tanker capacity to go to India or China. Venezuela to Houston is about 5-6 days. India would be >35 days, so > 7 ships would be need for one that did not got to the US. China is even more distant from Venezuela .... Nice chart of the ypes of crude generally availble for tanker shipping. Doesn't cover many inland crude types. Complicated, but there is a listing of individual fields and their gravity and sulphur content. mcqservices.com *** I don't know enough about North Korea, but they are not in a position to disrupt oil supplies, unless they want to hand nukes over to terrorists. *** Iran and the US (plus maybe the EU) are on a collision course. Part of this may be the internal politics of Iran, where there is a sizable pro-Western group political block. A confrontation with the West will make pro-Western sentiment unpatriotic, and under cuts the pro-Westerners' political power. As for who is not understanding what, note Iranian statements about a certain "fake Superpower". Contrast with Quadaffi in Libya, who is taking his country away from a confrontation path. The present US administration has quiet a few naive born-again Christians. The turnip trunk pulled up to the White House, and they fell off. But I think Iran wins the reality disconnect prize. There is a new group of people running the Iranian government, and few have much foreign policy experience. They seem to have a very theoretical approach. Maybe some Iranians think that Allah will stop Western bombs from falling on Iranian military bases. Maybe they think that their under-developed missles will prove to be reliable without extensive engineering and testing. I think the crisis will go down to the last minute, and I think the odds of military action are very high.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (4042)	2/6/2006 11:42:20 PM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 217743

why itching for fight? Could be that they read the newspapers, so see that Dubya has lost popularity, and don't realize that in the US, that doesn't mean jack, especially for a "lame duck" president. Hard for them to wrap their heads around the concept of the office mattering more than the person sitting in it. Since I have seen the future, and it's biodiesel from soybeans, thinned with ethanol from switch grass, I don't care how we get there. I just hope not too many innocent people get murdered along the way. My husband, who has a mordant sense of humor, suggests that instead of blaming Halliburton, we should blame Archer Daniels Midland.