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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (52868)	2/6/2006 7:06:41 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Darf, great post! Majority of analysts missed the oil gains. Now they invent all kinds of excuses why they did so.

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (52868)	2/6/2006 9:01:03 PM
From: el_gaviero	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Wow, Darffort, what a post. Great stuff. I totally agree with you about all that "premium" business.....as if one person looking at the price of a barrel of oil can isolate a single demand influence, in a market in which there are tens of thousands of direct participants, and indirectly, the number of participants includes just about the whole damn planet. Will Lance Lewis dare to show his face around here again? We shall see....we shall see.....

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (52868)	2/6/2006 9:19:22 PM
From: regli	Respond to of 110194

Super post, Darffot!!

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (52868)	2/6/2006 9:20:35 PM
From: Jim Fleming	Respond to of 110194

Darffot Thank you for a very useful commentary on the oil market. Jim Fleming

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (52868)	2/7/2006 9:08:15 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

Good comments, and agree the COT is not useless. Some of this debate gets to be more intuitive than data based and factual. Personally I felt (like you) that the notion of speculative demand for oil was brought along by the energy bears too soon. But now you see large speculative pools in about everything including commodities. CNBC and cheerleaders like James Cramer have some hype on about every day. As an early bull in this sector I have mailboxes full of come ons and ads. Makes me nervous. Therefore I strongly lean towards the theory that a fairly large spec position is in oil (although may be flushed out of NG right now). The larger question though: how strong are the holders? Are they gunslingers, or large strategic holders? And how much leverage are they using? Same question should be asked of everything from oil to gold to Russell 2000, because if there is a revulsion of some type, instead of "buy everything" (because of a perception of excess liquidity, which I call the Humpty Dumpty trade), "something" will get sold (because liquidity is in reality contracting), and perhaps hard. I think we are near that point. I'm just not sure where oil (or gold) is in that, but have some real concerns. They all seem to trade in tandem whether it's a chart of oil, gold, Russell 2000, or LEH.