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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lazarus_Long who wrote (181348)	2/7/2006 3:31:41 PM
From: steve dietrich	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

The bigger threat is that a civil war would de-stabilize the entire region with various countries entering into the fray.

To: Lazarus_Long who wrote (181348)	2/7/2006 6:17:23 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

You mentioned civil war. Yeah. That's one of the biggest dangers- -Iraqi breaking down in civil war and ending up either an Islamic fundamentalistic theocracy or getting pieces chopped off by neighboring countries until nothing is left of Iraq. Yes.. this is what I fear (and I believe most of the US military and political leadership). And there IS great risk that Iran, Syria, and Turkish interference in Iraq for their own parochial interests are exacerbating the political and social unrest. And certainly Iran and Syria would love to "chop up" Iraq for their own benefit, if they could. The Iraqis, unfortunately, are still burdened by political and tribal leadership that is caught up in religious invective, vendetta mentality, or merely trying to maintain their relevance in a new system that will likely undermine their past place within the political system. And they have an unfortunate tendency to forget that they have foreign neighbors who would love nothing else than to be able to grab and exploit their resources. It's only starting to get to the point where the Sunnis are facing the reality that their past dominance of the country will not be tolerated again. If they can get past their past differences and seek compromise with the Kurds, they will have the political power to thwart the Iranian influenced Shi'ite party. Hawk