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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: NOW who wrote (46086)2/8/2006 10:28:36 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Weekly mortgage applications lower; rates flat to higher
Wednesday, February 8, 2006 2:13:20 PM
afxpress.com

WASHINGTON (AFX) -- Mortgage applications activity eased in the week ended Feb. 3 compared to the prior week, the Mortgage Bankers Association said. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the MBA's gauge for tracking mortgage applications overall slipped 1.2%, with applications for mortgages to buy homes dropping 2.4% and refinancing applications nosing 0.2% higher. Refinancings accounted for 42.1% of last week's applications, off from 43.0% a week earlier, while adjustable-rate mortgages fell to 29.8% from 30.5%. Average contract interest rates on 30- and 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose to 6.25% and 5.84%, respectively, from the previous week's 6.20% and 5.79%. The average rate on one-year ARMs held steady at 5.48%. Overall, the MBA's four-week moving average tracking mortgage volumes was down 1.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis



To: NOW who wrote (46086)2/8/2006 10:46:47 AM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
Mortgage Prepayments Drop to Slowest Pace Since 2003 (Update1)
bloomberg.com

Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. homeowners paid off their mortgages at the slowest pace in almost three years as rising prices and interest rates cooled the housing market and builders reported declining orders.

The prepayment rate on $438 billion of bonds paying 5.5 percent interest and guaranteed by Fannie Mae, the biggest provider of money for home loans, dropped to 10.1 percent in January, the slowest since March 2003, from 12.9 percent in the prior month, the Washington-based company said. Rival Freddie Mac said homeowners prepaid its 5.5 percent bonds at an 8.6 percent pace, the slowest since February 2003.

The drop may be the latest sign of a slowdown in housing, which Merrill Lynch & Co. said accounted for about half of U.S. economic growth since 2001. Signs of a weaker housing market have led investors in the $3 trillion market for mortgage-backed securities to sell the lowest-yielding bonds. Toll Brothers Inc., the largest U.S. builder of luxury homes, today said first- quarter orders plunged 29 percent.

``Rising rates have taken their toll'' on consumer refinancing to turn home equity into cash, said Akiva Dickstein, head of mortgage research at Merrill Lynch in New York. ``The housing market is showing some signs of slowdown, and Toll Brothers is evidence of that.''

Mortgage Rates

Declining prepayments follow an increase in the average 30- year fixed rate mortgage to 6.37 percent by mid-November from 5.71 percent in early September. A homeowner who applied for a $250,000 30-year fixed-rate loan in November would pay about $1,272 a year more based on that increase. The mortgage rate was 6.23 percent last week.

Mortgage bond investors are hurt as falling prepayments will further boost the expected life of securities, especially those with the lowest interest rates. The duration, or degree of interest rate-risk, on those bonds extends as interest rates rise, making their value fall faster than on debt without a prepayment option, such as Treasuries.

Mortgage bonds guaranteed by Fannie Mae and paying 5.5 percent interest yield 5.74 percent, or 1.18 percentage points more than the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note. The spread, little changed from a week ago, has widened from 1.10 percentage points in August.

Higher Coupons

Investors have been swapping mortgage bonds with the lowest coupons, such as 5 percent, for those with higher coupons, such as 6 percent, said Alec Crawford, head of mortgage strategy at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut.

When interest rates rise, bonds with lower coupons fall faster because they are the least likely to be paid off before maturity. Investors want the bonds to be redeemed so they can reinvest at higher rates.

Rising rates have corresponded with a drop in home sales, reducing loan turnover and slowing prepayments. Existing home sales in December fell to a 6.6 million annual rate, the slowest since March 2004.

Orders for Toll Brothers homes, which cost an average $709,000, dropped to 1,544 in the quarter from 2,173. Toll Brothers, based in Horsham, Pennsylvania, said sales would rise as little as 4.9 percent this year, half its previous forecast.

``A lot of anecdotal stories about home-related companies'' suggests that a slowdown in housing may be part of the drop in prepayments, Crawford said. ``Our call on residential real estate is not that we are entering a slump, but simply that we had incredible growth and will come back to more normal levels.''

Fannie Mae and Mclean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac, the two largest sources of money for U.S. home loans, package pools of mortgages from lenders into bonds that are sold to investors or purchased for their own portfolios. The government-chartered public companies also issue their own debt to raise cash for mortgage purchases. Government-owned Ginnie Mae issues only mortgage securities.



To: NOW who wrote (46086)2/8/2006 11:03:42 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Web Sites Push Further Into Services Real Estate Agents Offer

By DAMON DARLIN
Published: February 8, 2006

Two real estate Web sites are starting to offer services that could change the way real estate is bought and sold online.

One site, Zillow.com, zillow.com which will be introduced today, will help consumers obtain more accurate real estate sales information — to the consternation of some real estate agents.

A smaller site, Redfin.com, redfin.com introduced an unusual new service last week that might be even more disruptive to the real estate industry: the feature automates the process of bidding on a house online.

Zillow is attracting a lot of attention because it obtained $32 million in venture capital financing and its chief executive, Rich Barton, was a creator of Expedia, the online travel agency.

The new site provides data like previous sales prices and the prices of similar properties on 60 million residential properties, information that real estate agents do not display in the public multiple listing service. The site also includes price appreciation (or depreciation) data in a form that resembles stock charts. "It's a lot of data to make you smarter," Mr. Barton said.

In addition, Zillow uses software to offer a free home-value estimator. The "Zestimate" service tries to do what has been a primary function of the real estate agent. And in contrast to many other real estate Web sites, like Realtor.com, run by the National Association of Realtors, or Home Pages.com, pages.com owned by Housevalues Inc., Zillow does not try to connect its users with agents.

Many real estate agents worry that Zillow could be a first step in an online evolution that could threaten their $60 billion commission-based business, just as Expedia, Travelocity and other online sites disrupted the business of travel agents.

Mr. Barton said it was not his intent to take part of the agent's commission, which averages slightly less than 6 percent and is split between the buyer's and seller's agents. Instead, Zillow is an advertising-supported site.

Mr. Barton said he expected to sell advertising on the site because the information there will create in nearly every American city a community of people interested in real estate. New York City will be the notable exclusion, because of the complexity of mapping multistory multiowner condominiums.

Zillow's sizable capitalization is already causing anxiety among online companies that match real estate listings with interactive maps and other data. PropertyShark.com, propertyshark.com a site that began with New York City listings and has since expanded to 15 other cities, for instance, is wary of Zillow because of its venture backing.

PropertyShark has no outside financing. "It is scary, and frustrating and nerve-racking," said Matthew Haines, the site's founder. "It made it quite clear that we are underfunded."

Redfin, though less well financed than Zillow, is perhaps even more ambitious in its aim to take on the work of agents. The site, which maps listings with other sources of real estate data for Seattle, added a feature last week that allows a visitor to buy a property online.

A real estate agent is not cut out of the process; in fact, Redfin is itself a real estate brokerage company. But the site automates the paperwork of making a bid and then rebates to the buyer two-thirds of the buyer's agent's commission, which is usually 3 percent. Redfin, as the buyer's agent, takes only a 1 percent commission.

Redfin shows the potential savings on every listing. For instance, the "direct savings" on a $699,000 house currently for sale in the Queen Anne district in Seattle is $13,980. The buyer gets the money at closing so it can be used for the down payment or to pass to the seller if it was used to sweeten an offer.

Right below the description of that property are two buttons, one to "see it" and the other to "buy it." A click on the see button helps the potential buyer arrange a tour of the property. Clicking on the buy button leads the visitor through online forms that generate the paperwork for an offer.

"We won't replace the agent," said Glenn Kelman, Redfin's chief executive. "We let people who are self-reliant do the legwork and gain 2 percent." Redfin has been financed with $1.25 million, with most of that coming from the Madrona Venture Group of Seattle. The company said it was seeking additional financing to expand to other cities.

All of these real estate sites are chipping away at the agent's business of matching clients with a property and then negotiating a deal. The Web is already displacing the initial contact that agents have with customers. A recent National Association of Realtors survey found that 77 percent of home buyers use the Internet to search for a home. About 24 percent said they first learned of a home from the Internet, up from 15 percent in a 2004 survey.

Mr. Barton does not exclude the possibility that the role of the agent, and his site, may change.

"People want Realtors," he said. "But is it rational to pay Realtors what they are paid?" He says he thinks they are overpaid because customers are doing more of the work themselves.

Zillow, for instance, has a number of other features that do the work of the agent. Someone wanting to compare properties can use pull-down menus to estimate the value of remodeling projects that are not reflected in the price. Because of the Internet, agents are spending less time with clients, Mr. Barton said. "Agents have to ask, What kind of value am I adding?"

Still, Mr. Barton said, "it is not our intent to dislocate the agent."

Mr. Kelman of Redfin said he recognized that change might be difficult. "We are like the penguins on the edge of an iceberg when no one wants to jump in first. Redfin is going in first," he said. "Maybe that isn't such a good analogy. The first penguin in usually gets eaten by sharks or something."

nytimes.com



To: NOW who wrote (46086)2/8/2006 11:08:58 AM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
I like emails like this one - My reply is first
Thanks Bill
Education is important
Please feel free to use it.
Glad you enjoyed it
Mish

Mike,
Great article on the "Inflation Monster." I will be using it in my economics classes at Brookville High School in Pa. I have been harping about inflation and the Federal Reserve to the students. I appreciate your analysis of the banking situation, the related business cycle and your solutions. Best Wishes. Sincerely,
Bill ****



To: NOW who wrote (46086)2/8/2006 12:48:29 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 116555
 
Nah....al Quieda watches Fox.<G>

I think 24 is their favorite show! That darned Jack Bauer keeps messing up the good guys.....