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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry J Costanzo who wrote (129230)	2/10/2006 1:13:45 AM
From: John Madarasz	Respond to of 209892

yes, the four year cycle is a very important one...and your chart shows it well. While I certainly wouldn't describe myself as any kind of expert, I think i'm fortunate enough to read alot of analysis by folks who fall into that category imho, so anything i would have to offer would really just be extrapolations of thier much more comprehensive study. I think the general consensus is for some sort of 4 year cycle low somewhere between march and Sept of 2006, but that's a pretty wide timeframe. Most good cycle technicians will use other cycles of different durations to fine tune these times, and look for clusters or confluences of as many important cycles as possible to try to identify important turn times. All the cycle work is complimented with the good old fashioned solid TA work we both appreciate as well ;~) Right now some very important short and intermediate term cycle times in march 2006 seem to be appearing, and it's at that point that other cycles will help with direction from there. Here's a chart from a really good cycle guy that tilts in favor of Shack's #3 scenario... notice that wave 1 low in the march timeframe your401k.org and if you are really interested in some of the finest cycle analysis available, I'd highly recommend Stan Harley's work...it's the best around imo. I'd really just be parroting his work by commenting any further, and i don't want to do that. please mention my name if you contact him. We stay in touch fairly regularly, and he's a really good guy. harleymarketletter.com I'm sure you already know all this stuff, but i hope this helps anyway ;~) Best to you