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To: Win-Lose-Draw who wrote (129315)	2/9/2006 1:07:23 PM
From: The Freep	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

The Dow has pierced through the only downtrend line is has here, and is at that troublesome 10950 area again. A move up here has to be bought, I'd think. Also, it's the most annoying place imaginable for a pullback to leave everything unclear for one more day... Looking at the daily INDU stockcharts.com[r,a]dhcayiay[pb20!b50!b200!c20!d20,2!f][vc60][ilb14!la12,26,9!lg!li10,10!lh5,5!lp14,3,3!ll14][J5593496,Y]&pref=G It's sure mighty easy to see a five wave move off the 10661 low, and a correction off that move. That means we'd now be in the i of 3 of that move up. That'd be... well... strong.

To: Win-Lose-Draw who wrote (129315)	2/9/2006 1:07:54 PM
From: skinowski	Respond to of 209892

in general (g), institutions are lemmings... collectives are not more intelligent than individuals. My theory about "commercials" - the smart money - is that they are not really "smart" - it is simply that very often they have no choice but to take the other side of the trades which are initiated by various investors and speculators. And THOSE guys, as a GROUP, are NOT smart. So, all the various market makers and specialists and such are "forced" by traders to make money... -g/ng They "force" them to be short at the tops of rallies, and long at the end of declines.

To: Win-Lose-Draw who wrote (129315)	2/9/2006 1:13:01 PM
From: skinowski	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

LOL! A long time ago I was long CSCO, and IB didn't close the position completely. left me with 5 shares. I wish I had more... just sold and cleared $13 and change... off now to the pizza place... -g

To: Win-Lose-Draw who wrote (129315)	2/9/2006 2:35:50 PM
From: bcrafty	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

WLD, for the purposes of discussion on sentiment matters, somebody has to be generally defined as the smart money and someone as the dumb money, even though the "smart" money may appear to make "dumb" moves from time to time. I had a similar discussion with Shack and AA a few years ago when AA commented that at that particular time the Rydex traders appeared to him to be "the smart money" and I admonished him that getting into a discussion like that is confusing and becomes a word game: either the Rydex trading is a contrarian indicator (and those people are to be faded) or it's not. But just like a broken clock might be correct twice a day, the dumb money can appear to be smart from time to time in the short term. I don't set the rules here, but I think it's generally accepted that for the purpose of sentiment discussions the big money boys are the smart guys, and little traders like you and I are the dumb money. Before you cry "you and I are not the dumb money; it's those guys who know nothing about TA and who trade on stock tips from cab drivers and get in at the end of trends when everybody's buying" I don't think that whoever devised this sort of contrarian analysis makes such distinctions: instead it's more of a "big money" vs. "small money" sort of thing. Now then, if you really want to blur the terms consider this idea: if an big institution like a mutual fund is the smart money, and you are a mutual fund holder, then you are the smart money. How about that? <g>