Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Shack who wrote (129332)	2/9/2006 5:16:55 PM
From: shoreco	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

So your basic analysis of the market is... We can go up... We can go down... We can stay right here... That's about the market we've had for 2 years now with an upward bias and no major corrections... stockcharts.com[r,a]maclyyay[pb7!b25!b50!b100!b150!b200][vc60][iUb14!Ua12,26,9!Lh14,3!Ll14][J6530777,Y]&pref=G I can easily see a 100pt pullback on the SPX over the next few months, but with that said, there is a ton of support in the 1175ish area (so I doubt we'll see any type of crash)... Everyone looking for tops, everyone looking for bottoms... For the near term I think we've got a date with the 50ma area just above 1200ish... Look at the patterns on this chart... stockcharts.com[r,a]waclyyay[pb7!b25!b50!b100!b150!b200][vc60][iub14!ua12,26,9!lh14,3!ll14][j6530777,y]&listNum=1

To: Shack who wrote (129332)	2/9/2006 5:26:27 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

I see you give little credence to this Very nice chart of the yield curve here: bloomberg.com I bet it's not different this time Mish

To: Shack who wrote (129332)	2/9/2006 5:32:46 PM
From: Henry J Costanzo	Respond to of 209892

Well said....Respect your first scenario........with slight modification....gg 1) The correction off the Jan high indeed finished yesterday and the late day decline today is just a wiggle (ii) and we are going right back up tomorrow: Bullish continuation of wave C of 5 of V from the 2002 low...

To: Shack who wrote (129332)	2/9/2006 5:48:00 PM
From: The Freep	Respond to of 209892

Yes, Shack... I, too, agree with the three scenarios. Up down or both! How annoying this is. I don't think today was terribly bearish, per se, though we did get some pretty ugly candles. We need to turn around sooner rather than later tomorrow. Volume was largely lacking today, but seemed stronger on the downside than yesterday's upside. That probably means something. Let me know in hindsight, okay?

To: Shack who wrote (129332)	2/9/2006 7:29:38 PM
From: skinowski	Respond to of 209892

....Or, 4) We keep fartzing around and ranging, with minor new lows or highs... or whatever... for another couple of months, and then begin a slide into seasonal weakness... or, Mr. Market being the only true conrarian, we may instead rally into October...... g/ng. For years now, breaks up or down were signs of an impending reversal, rather than of anything else. Which is a sign that sooner or later we will - eventually - see a trend, and the broad indices will assert themselves.... and once again become raisers - or sinkers - of all boats... the problem is - it's hard to tell when...... but... even this last statement is not entirely true, it isn't all that hard, it just requires more patience and discipline than most members of our species possess, including yours truly... but we'll keep trying.

To: Shack who wrote (129332)	2/9/2006 8:12:11 PM
From: the-phoenix	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

2) We are about to make a new low and the correction off the Jan high will take the form of a 1-2-3-4-5 wedge completing around 1245: Bullish in all time frames except the next couple of days. Think about this. A wedge in this position is either a Leading Diagonal (VERY bearish) or a Wave 4, which essentially means the top is in, as we will have retraced all of the purported Wave 3, disallowing new highs (else Wave 3 would be the shortest). Any move up out of a wedge from the 1245 area is at best a chance to get out of longs and start getting short. NDX has a prettier potential wedge in process, here, BTW. No, I think we need to turn up pronto or the IT bullish case is all but dead.

To: Shack who wrote (129332)	2/9/2006 9:00:23 PM
From: Henry J Costanzo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

Knowing how in awe you've been of my ED formulations, and their morphologies. thought I should stake out, for the record, a possible affinity with your second scenario as well. My first response was based on my long-standing ED scenario. However, I posted over the weekend a chart showing a possible alternative to that ED. Taking that variant into account, that would have us down a bit more here, right now.........probably well below your 1245......and THEN going bullish into the final 5 of V. Wanted to be sure this is on the record to avoid any hitches when you announce the awards ! LOL