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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: skinowski who wrote (129373)	2/10/2006 8:48:17 AM
From: venividivici	Respond to of 209892

Checked - The Oct rally is somewhere between 62 and 78.6% of the first leg out of Oct 2002. Could well be enough. I was speaking more on a % basis. The Oct 2002 leg up was a 45% move. Applying that same % to the Oct 2005 low of ~$37 gets you to ~$54 on the QQQQ. From what I read in Frost & Prechter, at this degree, you'd want to use % gains, not $ gains. I agree, though, that this could be the start of an impulse down for real and we're in a something of 5 down, not an ABC down. I dare say that a bear that started on Jan 11 of this year (or more recently in the case of other indices), would definitely be a surprise. I remember hearing in mid-Jan that some of the investor sentiment polls had reached near all-time highs for bulls. I personally don't use those polls for timing, but when they reach actual extremes they might be useful.