tejek,
re:Finally, in your article, they discuss how Canada has 1/3 of the world's potential reserves of NG.
Where did you see 1/3, I read about 1%.
World Natural Gas Reserves
The EIA, in conjunction with the Oil and Gas Journal and World Oil publications, estimates world proved natural gas reserves to be around 5,210.8 Tcf. As can be seen from the graph, most of these reserves are located in the Middle East with 1,836.2 Tcf, or 34 percent of the world total, and Europe and the Former U.S.S.R. with 2158.7, or 42 percent of total world reserves. The United States, by this calculation, possesses 3 percent of the world total natural gas reserves
re:First of all, natural gas in other parts of the world does the US little good. True, they are developing LNG ports but they are very costly to build and their production will be limited
WTF - the industry is growing and the shipping is expanding, ports will be constructed as needed. True there is a compatibility issue for off loading, but that's easily fixed.
eia.doe.gov
World LNG Shipping Capacity Expanding
According to LNG Shipping Solutions, 151 LNG tankers were in operation worldwide as of October 2003: 16 ships with a capacity of less than 50,000 cubic meters, 15 in the 50,000 to 120,000 cubic meters range, and 120 larger than 120,000 cubic meters.
Fifty-five ships are under construction, of which 46 are designed to carry at least 138,000 cubic meters of LNG (equivalent to 2.9 Bcf of natural gas).14 Much larger ships with 250,000 cubic meters of capacity (equivalent to 5.3 Bcf of natural gas) are under consideration, but may not be compatible with all existing LNG terminals.
The addition of new ships to the fleet will raise total fleet capacity 44 percent from 17.4 million cubic meters of liquid (equivalent to 366 Bcf of natural gas) in October 2003 to 25.1 million cubic meters of liquid (equivalent to 527 Bcf of natural gas) in 2006.
Shipping accounts for 10 to 30 percent of the delivered value of LNG (depending on the distance from the reserves to the market), compared with less than 10 percent for oil, because of the relatively high cost of manufacturing LNG tankers. Tankers currently cost $150 to $160 million for a 138,000-cubic-meter ship, more than double the price of a very large crude oil tanker which carries 4 to 5 times as much energy. One reason for this high cost is that LNG ships require expensive, insulated cryogenic containment for the cargo.
The cost of a 138,000-cubic-meter LNG tanker has declined, however, from a peak of $280 million (in nominal dollars) in 1995.
In the conventional oil tanker market, most ships are built on speculation. This has not been the case in LNG where ships were used on dedicated routes for specific projects. However, several large companies that import or export LNG, including BP, Shell, and Tokyo Gas, have recently ordered ships that are not dedicated to a project.
The availability of uncommitted LNG tankers is a key element in the development of the LNG short-term market.
Only eight shipyards in the world currently build LNG tankers: three in Japan; three in Korea; and two in Europe. However, India, China, and Poland are planning to develop LNG tanker construction capabilities in their shipyards.
re:Secondly, when you look at the US's proven reserves, we have roughly 60 years left at current consumption rates. Most of the other NG talked about in the article you presented is pontential NG, not actual. There are a lot of questions whether that NG even exists, and if it does, whether its extractable. Currently, every available NG rig has been deployed in the US, but production continues to decline from one year to the next. That should concern you, but of course, it won't.
It concerns me a bit - but it appears we're on track to expand our dependance on foreign sources - that's what concerns me, we're not going to run out anytime soon. |
