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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: regli who wrote (53654)	2/13/2006 4:24:32 PM
From: TimbaBear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I think that AMT combined with inflation matters in this discussion as well. Well, AMT is encroaching on more and more taxpayers, that is true, but I don't have a good feel for how to quantify the impact from that yet. I believe that inflation plays no small part in the numbers and, in fact, may play the leading role. Perhaps a small increase in the overall number of employed factors in, but with the US Government expanding its hiring at a frantic pace, I would say that those jobs probably have a higher base which would also make the tax revenues rise accordingly. I'm not a super tax expert, so a lot of this is more difficult to distill than if I were, perhaps. But several things are apparent from all other data that is national in scope: House flipping has amounted to an approximate 24% of home sales in recent years if we use second home, non-owner occupied stats as a guide; the increase in jobs has been paltry at best and the stories of the amazing jobless recovery abound; wage price increases have not kept pace with inflation; 2Q-05 and 3Q-05 Government stats were impacted by two hurricanes which makes derivations from those figures somewhat suspect; by all reports, housing sales and resales are not as hot as they were a year ago. We live in interesting times. Timba