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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: gpowell who wrote (53725)2/13/2006 2:05:53 PM
From: shades  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
=DJ KB Home Says Cancellations Up, Orders Down So Far In '06

greenspan - chairman of the fed for 18 years - said fannie and freddie could take us all down

By Janet Morrissey
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--KB Home (KBH) has noticed a surge in cancellations and a drop-off in orders in the first two months of fiscal 2006, and if this trend continues, the company said it likely will have to ratchet down its revenue guidance for the year, according to a 10K filing.

The comments appear to be a sign that the sharp drop-off in orders recently reported by luxury builder Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) may not be limited to the luxury segment as many market experts presumed.

"There are signs that consumer demand in the United States for residential housing at current prices is softening," KB Home said in its 10K, which was filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday.

The Los Angeles builder noted that the U.S. Census Bureau reported that single-family housing starts in December fell 12% from November, and about 8% from December 2004. Also, the bureau reported that the median sales price for new homes declined approximately 3% in December from a year earlier.

"Our results to date in fiscal year 2006 reflect these broader market trends," the company said, whose fiscal year ends Nov. 30. "In the first two months of the (fiscal) year, we have experienced an increase in home order cancellations and a decline in net orders for new homes when compared to the same period last year."

If this trend continues, "we may be required to moderate our revenue guidance for fiscal year 2006," KB Home said.

However, the company said it doesn't expect to change its earnings-per-share guidance for fiscal 2006 as the company has accelerated its share buyback program. In December, KB Home's board authorized the repurchase of 10 million shares. Since then, the company has repurchased 2 million shares in addition to the 2 million shares it bought back during its fiscal fourth quarter under the previous authorization program.

In December, the company said it expected to generate earnings of $11.25 a share in fiscal 2006, up 18% from fiscal 2005.

UBS analyst Margaret Whelan expects the company's orders to be down 10% in its fiscal first quarter, which ends Feb. 28. However, she remains cautiously optimistic about the company's outlook.

"Based on our channel checks, traffic has been improving steadily since early January, which augurs well for the spring selling season," she said.

She said much will depend on how the company's key spring selling season unfolds.

"Demand is definitely down - there's no doubt about it," she said. However, if the sector faces a "soft landing" rather than a crash, large publicly traded home builders should remain stable, she said. In a soft landing, where orders don't fall off a cliff, she said large builders can grow by gaining market share from smaller, less-liquid builders. "Everything depends on what happens in the spring," she said.

Whelan does not hold shares in KB Home, but her firm has had an investment banking relationship with the company over the past 12 months.

KB Home shares recently traded at $66.30, off 92 cents, or 1.4%, on volume of 1.4 million, compared with average daily volume of 2 million.

-By Janet Morrissey, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-2118


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 13, 2006 14:01 ET (19:01 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 02 01 PM EST 02-13-06



To: gpowell who wrote (53725)2/13/2006 2:08:32 PM
From: shades  Respond to of 110194
 
DJ Treasurys Stuck In Quiet Trade, Bond Suffers Indigestion

.
By Michael Mackenzie
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--U.S. Treasury prices were mainly loitering around unchanged levels midafternoon Monday, while the long end of the curve was modestly weaker.

In recent trade, the 10-year note was yielding 4.58%, unchanged from Friday's late close.

In the absence of data, Treasurys have been trading quietly, and market participants are preoccupied with testimony from the new Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke, later this week.

His testimony on monetary policy and the economy before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday and the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday will likely outweigh the arrival of key data releases. The words of one man having so much POWER is not very risk tolerant eh? what if he wants to do evil with his words?

Readings on housing, retail sales, foreign investment and inflation are due later in the week.

For now, Treasurys are seen staying in narrow ranges until Bernanke makes his first public comments as Fed chairman.

"The market is quiet and investors are waiting for Bernanke's testimony," said Rick Klingman, head of Treasury trading at ABN Amro in New York.

Investors are likely to parse Bernanke's speech and the following question-and-answer exchange with senators and congressmen for a glimpse into the Fed's outlook on the economy. In turn, the major question up for debate is whether the federal funds rate of 4.50% reaches 5% in May after an expected hike to 4.75% next month.

"There's no question - Bernanke's testimony is the central focus for the market," said Jason Evans, head of government bond trading at Deutsche Bank in New York.

Still, there is some doubt as to how forthcoming Bernanke will be about future policy, particularly as he wasn't present at the previous meeting of the Fed's Open Market Committee held Jan. 31.

Around 1:45 p.m. EST (1845 GMT), the 10-year Treasury note was unchanged at 99 11/32 to yield 4.58%. The 30-year Treasury was off 8/32 at 99, yielding 4.56%.

The five-year price was up 1/32 at 98 19/32 for a 4.57% yield, while the three-year was flat at 99 19/32, yielding 4.64%. The two-year note was unchanged at 99 14/32 to yield 4.67%.

With several European countries set to issue new debt this week and the U.S. government bond market recovering from a late afternoon sell-off on Friday, "the backdrop is somewhat negative for Treasurys," Deutsche Bank's Evans said.

That tone may intensify should Bernanke underscore the determination of the Fed in keeping the threat of inflation at bay.

As evidence mounts the economy could record growth in the region of 5% for the first quarter, and core inflation measures flirt with the 2% ceiling amid resource constraints, "Bernanke's testimony may have a hawkish tone," noted economists at Bear Stearns in New York.

One area of Treasurys likely to experience significant trading activity during Bernanke's testimony is the shape of the yield curve.

"If Bernanke focuses on the strengths of the economy, then the Fed will raise again at the end of March and the curve will invert further," said Andrew Brenner, head of institutional fixed income at Investec in New York.

The curve became fully inverted after last week 30-year bond sale, which attracted massive interest from indirect - or non-primary dealer - bidders.

That drove the new long bond's price higher, pushing the yield below that on every other maturity on the curve.

In trade Monday, the bond was languishing, however this was seen being a case of the market digesting recent supply and nothing fundamental said ABN's Klingman.

He expects the inversion of the curve will remain in place for some time, or at least until the market "sees weaker economic data." The risk of further rate hikes "keeps the pressure on the front end," he added

Such expectations have pushed the two-year note yield to a five-year high. Meanwhile, the 10-year note is still under last year's peak of 4.65%.

Deutsche's Evans noted the 10-year note yield is back in the 4.60% range, the buy zone for some foreign central banks and international money managers.

Of this week's data, a substantial boost for bonds could come from weaker housing numbers, noted David Ader, bond strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich Conn.

The National Association of Home Builders will release its February housing index on Wednesday.

Convincing signs that the U.S. housing market is running out of steam would change considerably the economic outlook, causing markets to question whether the Fed may have to stop raising rates sooner rather than later.

Also, "supply considerations are not completely behind the market," Ader said, referring to two-year and five-year note sales due at the end of the month.
COUPON ISSUE PRICE CHANGE YIELD CHANGE
4 3/8% 2-year 99 14/32 unchanged 4.67% BP
4 1/2% 3-year 99 19/32 unchanged 4.64% BP
4 1/4% 5-year 98 19/32 up 1/32 4.57% -0.7 BP
4 1/2% 10-year 99 11/32 unchanged 4.58% BP
4 1/2% 30-year 99 dn 9/32 4.56% +1.6 BP
2-10-Yr Yield Spread: -9 BPS Vs -10 BPS
Source: TradeWeb


-Michael Mackenzie; Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5451
michael.mackenzie@dowjones.com (Steven C. Johnson contributed to this article)


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 13, 2006 14:01 ET (19:01 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 02 01 PM EST 02-13-06



To: gpowell who wrote (53725)2/13/2006 2:12:42 PM
From: shades  Respond to of 110194
 
=DJ Wall Street Looks To India To Boost Equity Research Ops

"In the current marketplace there has been minimal job impact," said Deloitte's Peter Lowes. Still, over time there are likely to be fewer entry-level opportunities in research for fresh MBA graduates in the U.S., he added.

spreading the power around eh? More future layoffs dujour for Mish perhaps? Apoo instead of Hendry Blodgett?

By Anjali Cordeiro

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Wall Street may be nearly 8,000 miles from Mumbai, but analysts and researchers based in Indian cities are playing an increasingly important role in putting together the equity research available on public companies in the U.S.

Several of the largest Wall Street firms have operations in India, which complement equity-research teams in the U.S. by analyzing data, developing financial models, and in some cases doing in-depth research on U.S. and global companies. Some investment banks are tapping this option to trim costs or to expand their research coverage.

Taking the trend a step further, several independent firms operating out of India are separately capitalizing on the need for more cost-effective research in the U.S. They act as third-part vendors that provide equity research on U.S. and international companies directly to investment banks, hedge funds and other financial institutions based in the U.S.

Peter Lowes, leader of the outsourcing advisory group at Deloitte Consulting and one of the authors of a Deloitte survey on the offshoring of financial services, said that large global investment banks are developing their equity-research abilities in India.

"Obviously, costs saving is a major motivator," he said.

Firms tend to save about 30% to 40% of the cost of the research functions moved offshore and compensation for an Indian hire would generally be just 15% or 25% of the salary of someone based in the U.S., according to Lowes.

Still, cost benefits aren't the only reason why some banks are looking abroad.

"Finding these highly specified quantitative skills is getting increasingly hard in certain markets," Lowes said, adding that Indian analysts, who are often of a high caliber, help meet this demand.

Wall Street giant JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), for instance, has about 80 research analysts in Mumbai. According to spokesman Brian Marchiony, a majority of these analysts work on equity research, although some are involved in credit and economic analysis.

The firm does see cost benefits in hiring research analysts in India, but Marchiony says there are other advantages. For instance, many of the Indian researchers do financial modeling and analysis that goes into the firm's equity research on companies based in the U.S. and other parts of the world. That has helped JPMorgan cover a wider range of companies and do more reports that are tailored for specific client needs. Marchiony said that JPMorgan's Equity Research division covered 1,230 U.S. companies at the end of 2005, well up from the 828 covered at the end of 2002. Hiring in India hasn't affected equity-research jobs in the U.S., the firm said.

The teams in India tend to act as an extension of research divisions in the U.S., usually under the direction of senior analysts based in the U.S.

A Goldman Sachs Group (GS) spokesman said that his firm has research-support functions in India that are "integrated with and complement our existing functions around the world." Goldman's Indian team supports U.S.-based analysts by helping to put together and analyze data on global companies.

Similarly, Banc of America Securities also has a team in India, which provides analytical support and completes requests from the U.S. and U.K. for equity research, Securities and Exchange Commission documents, ratings reports and company-related deal information. Given the time difference, the Indian team has the required information ready by the time the firm's operations in the U.S. and U.K. get into gear early the next morning.

Meanwhile, some firms have used outside vendors in India to support their equity-research operations. For instance, UBS (UBS) has outsourced a small number of equity-research-analyst supporting roles to India, according to a spokesman for that firm.

Deloitte's Peter Lowes said that there is an active community of third-party service providers operating out of India, which provide customized products to financial institutions in the U.S. Online filings with the SEC, transcribed conference calls available through the Internet, and publicly available press releases and data have all contributed to making these services possible.

One such vendor, Pipal Research, hires most of its analysts in India and says it can provide quality results at savings of 40% to 60% compared with in-house research services. The firms also have some analysts in Chicago and other parts of the world who can attend important meetings in person.

New York-based agency broker Griswold Co. used Pipal to evaluate the New York Stock Exchange's deal with Archipelago Holdings Inc. (AX). Griswold's Chief Operating Officer Matthew McConnell said his firm has since introduced Pipal to Griswold clients, including institutional money managers, hedge funds, mutual funds and investment advisors. Pipal provides these clients with research data or reports on particular companies.

"It's considered good work and cost effective," McConnell said.

Another research firm, Copal Partners, has headquarters in London but employs a team of analysts in New Delhi. Chief Executive Rishi Khosla says his analysts don't make buy or sell recommendations, but provide detailed written reports and research on companies and industries to clients such as hedge funds and large bulge-bracket firms.

Progeon, the outsourcing subsidiary of Indian software giant Infosys Technologies Ltd. (INFY), provides international banks with services that include in-depth company research. The firm's team of about 200 analysts is mostly made up of engineers, chartered accountants, MBAs and even a few PhDs. "Some have multiple degrees from both Indian and foreign universities," Ramit Sethi, business head of Progeon's knowledge services unit, said in an e-mail.

Still, despite the highly qualified workforce they have to offer, these firms insist that they aren't stealing existing Wall Street jobs. "Analysts are able to go into a lot of detail and make judgments on a better basis because of us," said Pipal Research Chief Executive Manoj Jain. "We haven't seen companies cut analyst jobs because of us."

"In the current marketplace there has been minimal job impact," said Deloitte's Peter Lowes. Still, over time there are likely to be fewer entry-level opportunities in research for fresh MBA graduates in the U.S., he added.


-By Anjali Cordeiro, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-2408; anjali.cordeiro@dowjones.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 13, 2006 13:07 ET (18:07 GMT)



To: gpowell who wrote (53725)2/13/2006 2:39:33 PM
From: shades  Respond to of 110194
 
=DJ SEC Extends Deadline for Joining XBRL Pilot Program

we have the technology

By Siobhan Hughes
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The Securities and Exchange Commission, struggling to persuade companies to use data-tagging technology in their regulatory filings, is extending a program that offers companies incentives to use the new technology.

The staff on Monday extended until March 10 the deadline for participating in a test program that allows companies that use data-tagging technology faster reviews of registration statements and annual reports. SEC Chairman Christopher Cox has been eager to encourage use of the technology, known as extensible business reporting language, or XBRL, which makes it easier to analyze and use data in financial statements.

-By Siobhan Hughes, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-6654; Siobhan.Hughes@dowjones.com



To: gpowell who wrote (53725)2/13/2006 3:16:21 PM
From: shades  Respond to of 110194
 
=DJ Shadow Panel Wants Fed Out Of Bank Supervision Role

By Brian Blackstone

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--A panel of academic experts Monday urged that the Federal Reserve exit its role as regulator of financial firms, saying the task clouds the central bank's primary mission of price stability and maximum employment.

"The crucial mission of the Fed lies in directing its monetary operations to fighting inflation and maintaining employment," the Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee wrote in an open letter to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

"To compromise this mission by undertaking supervisory tasks threatens its prestige and distracts from its proper focus on macroeconomic stability," the group stated. The shadow committee's co-chairmen are George Kaufman of Loyola University in Chicago and Richard Herring of the University of Pennsylvania.

Randall Kroszner, a University of Chicago professor nominated to fill one of the vacant Fed governor positions, formerly was a member of the Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee, which has been around for about two decades.

The shadow committee contended in its letter to Bernanke that few central banks in the world have the same supervisory role that the Fed does, and that those tasks can be better handled by the Office of Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

Such a change in the Fed's role would require legislation.

Assuming the Fed does retain its supervision role, the panel urged the central bank to use FDIC leverage ratios as a supervisory guide and not capital requirement ratios as defined by the Basel II international framework. It also suggested that policymakers take a more friendly view of affiliations between banks and commercial firms, an issue that has gained prominence with Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s (WMT) interest in operating banks.

The Fed's "reluctance to allow affiliations between commercial firms and banking organizations
.. enmesh the Fed in efforts by commercial firms to block competition from banks and by banks to avoid competition from nonbanks," the panel stated.

The experts also encouraged Bernanke to "continue former (Fed) Chairman (Alan) Greenspan's opposition to permitting Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to invest in mortgage-backed securities or to hold portfolios of mortgages beyond those earmarked for near-term securitization."

-By Brian Blackstone; Dow Jones Newswires; 202-828-3397; brian.blackstone@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 13, 2006 15:04 ET (20:04 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 03 04 PM EST 02-13-06