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To: Shack who wrote (129596)	2/15/2006 5:46:05 PM
From: skinowski	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Excellent points all. I can't see at this time how one could figure out this puzzle based on charts. CL decline is either C or 3. Back in October, I thought that the declines in OIH / XLE (and some key stocks) were corrective in nature, and that gave me some confidence at the time. I'd say that this time around OIH looks distinctly wedgy. XLE less so... but getting there. OIH - look at a 120 min chart. The action from mid-January to early February looks like a H&S (with a test of trendline on Feb 9). If that's the case, the decline - as of today - "fulfilled" the projection. OIH today tested 78.6% retracement of the rally since Dec 30. If today's lows do not hold, OIH is probably on its way to the next stop near 127 - 125. (Note that the orthodox top in OIH may have occurred on Dec 23 -- a couple of days after the top in CL). CL today tested its Nov lows. If they don't hold, the next stop is 55 and change, where (presumed) C=A. Bottom line - I think the fact that OIH and XLE have some corrective characteristics suggests that the current decline in CL is more likely to be Wave "C". But, even in this case, it may have more to go. I'll look at stocks and OIH/XLE for hints. (Btw, it seems that Rydex traders are bailing out of energy funds like crazy. That's another piece of evidence for the bullish side).

To: Shack who wrote (129596)	2/15/2006 6:11:48 PM
From: Henry J Costanzo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

CL.....Maybe I shouldn't have an opinion.........but I do..... Sharp undercut of 200d MA IMHO supports thesis that this is a 3 down from the high...Support at 4 down of lesser degree would take it to 51ish level, which would also satisfy the longer 3 requirement (longer than the 1 down). If any of this holds up, would have interesting ramifications........on the negative weight of falling oil stocks on the indexes....on the presumed "psychological benefits" of a fall in oil (the old saw about the market rising when oil falls).....on inflation, the Fed, interest rates......on the impact on heavy fuel users (airlines, freight etc.).......on the fate of our dear "AltEner" friends. Hope you will keep it all clear for us...... home.twcny.rr.com