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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (46600)	2/16/2006 2:16:10 PM
From: regli	Respond to of 116555

"Right now the US is still the world leader in trade and as long as that lasts so will the hegemony." Germany alone is the largest exporter in the world having overtaken the U.S. last year. However, is likely to be overtaken by China within the next 5 years. service.spiegel.de "...The world's largest exporter seems overly dependent on exports. ..." As to imports, the U.S. is only marginally larger than the EU. cia.gov $ 1,727 trillion vs. $ 1,402 for the EU. As to total exports, the EU leads the U.S. by a similar margin. cia.gov $ 1,318 trillion vs. $ 927 trillion. Based on these numbers, the EU is the world leader in trade! Note that the EU numbers are 2004 and do not include 2005 est. figures.

To: mishedlo who wrote (46600)	2/16/2006 8:15:41 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Respond to of 116555

But note how none of this has to do with an Iranian oil bourse. That is because you chose not to say anything! You talk about the "gradual shift away from the desirability to hold US$". Currently, a lot of that "desirability" in countries like India, China and many others is because oil is priced in USD. An Iranian oil bourse that prices oil in something other than the USD is going to speed up the very trends you are talking about. Btw, if it didn't really matter in what currency oil is priced in, why did the US have to switch Iraq from euro to USD after conquering it?

To: mishedlo who wrote (46600)	2/16/2006 8:35:50 PM
From: arun gera	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

>Iran is trying to make a political statement but that political statement really has little if any economic affect. From a trade perspective it is just too little to matter even IF (which I doubt) it affects real shifts by anyone out of US$ into euros.> Mish, It may be a political statement, but it is a political statement that could be imitated by other OPEC countries, bringing legitimacy to Euro. Euro economy is as big as US economy, and can be as vibrant as the mix of cheap educated labor from East Europe mixes with more knowldge intensive and advanced Western Europe. Euro itself is a political statement on behalf of many countries in Europe. Note how much the US ally in the Iraq war - UK has resisted the Euro. Dollar has not had a rival for a long time. Yen is not a true example, as Japan relies on US protection, and is not truly independent. -Arun