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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (54005)	2/16/2006 1:02:27 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

Date: Thu Feb 16 2006 12:26 trotsky (@silver) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved the 'silver is rarer than gold' argument makes no sense whatsoever. you could just as well say 'copper is rarer than gold'. it is quite normal that inventories of industrial metals are oscillating between 3 to 12 months worth of supply, depending on economic conditions ( when demand ramps up as it has recently done, you tend to get closer to the 3 months end of the range and vice versa ) . gold on the other hand is not 'used up', but held as a monetary reserve asset and a form of savings/ catastrophe insurance. therefore gold inventories will always be much larger than indutrial metals inventories. admittedly silver is a hybrid, but it still has more in common with the base metals in terms of its supply/demand characteristics than with the monetary metal. Date: Thu Feb 16 2006 12:00 trotsky (P.Yorkie) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "Then there is also the fact that the U.S. economy is running at full blast. " if we factor out hedonic indexing and imputations from the officially reported 4th quarter GDP growth , then the economy actually contracted in qu. 4 2005. since 2000, the US economy has officially grown by $1.4 trillion ( inflation-adjusted GDP growth ) . over the same period, total credit market debt outstanding has grown by an astounding $9 trillion. personal ( household ) debts alone have exploded by 60% over the past 5 years, from already elevated levels ( $6.9 trillion to $11 trillion ) . nearly 90% of the reported GDP growth was in consumption and residential building. the 'recovery' continues to be the weakest post WW2 recovery on record, with capital spending stuck in limbo, real wages declining and job growth non-existent ( over 80% of the reported job growth have been BLS's phantom jobs from the 'net birth/death model', and even with those fairy tale jobs included, private sector employment has risen only 1% since 2000 - compared to the 9% average of other post WW2 recoveries ) . this isn't an economy on 'full blast'. it's an economy running on fumes - the fumes of a massive credit expansion and the associated asset price bubbles. Date: Thu Feb 16 2006 10:39 trotsky (JD, 6:52, TB on currencies) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved there are several theories on currency relationships that make a lot of sense imo. first and foremost, one needs to look at how much of each currency is printed by the respective central banks. this is the most important intermarket fundamental datum in currencies ( and one should think, also the most obvious ) . the second most important factor are real interest rates, or more precisely , real interest rate EXPECTATIONS. if one is aware of how these factors shape up at any given time, one can make a good fundamentals based guess on likely currency relationships a few months out. in that sense i have to agree with TB that currently, it isn't quite clear why anyone would sell dollars for euros or yen. certainly in terms of money supply growth, the eurozone and Japan both have been printing a lot more money than the Fed over the past year, so there's little reason at present for these currencies to strengthen vs. the dollar. probably a better case can be made for Yen than for Euro strength, on account of rising expectations that the BoJ will get tighter. also, the Yen has been a favored carry trade currency, and the Yen carry trade has a history of frequently blowing up.

To: ild who wrote (54005)	2/17/2006 11:16:01 AM
From: aknahow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Conditions look better for a possible delivery of gold to the GLD ETF. Still having trouble telling if the stock is trading at a premium or discount on an interim basis but it could be at a premium at this moment. Should physical gold be delivered today 17 Feb. that would reinforce the idea that the pog is going to continue up for the near term.

To: ild who wrote (54005)	2/17/2006 11:23:02 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

"Options expire this week, which means some investors might be tempted to sell February options in order to take advantage of the fact that they will be worthless in just a few days." ----(The Wall Street Journal - "Expiration Drives Urge To Sell" - 2/15/06) Schaeffer's addendum: This single lead sentence says it all about the direction in which risk preferences have moved over the past five years. Options expiration week used to be a time for options traders to line up their bets on the stocks that might make big moves and produce huge profits for those fortunate enough to have bought low-dollar premium, high-gamma options that were soon to expire. These days, traders look to scoop up nickels and dimes in front of a steamroller by selling cheap (in dollars and in terms of implied volatility) near-expiring premium and risking ruin if a position moves big against them. This options equivalent of Russian roulette will blow up many traders before it is rightfully abandoned. Bernie Schaeffer

To: ild who wrote (54005)	2/23/2006 7:51:00 PM
From: aknahow	Respond to of 110194

With the Shite Sunni conflict, Nigerian unrest, comments from Dubai that dollar weakness is considered No.1 problem, the blockade at Gransberg and even the 7.5 earthquake close to South Africa I expected the pog gold to rise. Even so another day went by without a withdrawal. Would like to see a delivery, into GLD just to have tangible confirmation that there is still interest in accumulation. But will settle for no withdrawals. 03 Feb 2006 11,027,349.50 342.99 6,274,242,500.21 06 Feb 2006 11,027,349.50 342.99 6,282,306,647.48 07 Feb 2006 11,027,349.50 342.99 6,160,386,923.70 08 Feb 2006 11,027,349.50 342.99 6,050,598,487.54 09 Feb 2006 11,027,349.50 342.99 6,177,345,309.07 10 Feb 2006 11,027,349.50 342.99 6,141,439,115.89 13 Feb 2006 11,027,349.50 342.99 6,056,327,547.16 14 Feb 2006 11,027,349.50 342.99 5,950,399,781.40 15 Feb 2006 11,027,349.50 342.99 5,959,156,354.46 16 Feb 2006 11,027,349.50 342.99 5,939,793,398.50 17 Feb 2006 11,027,349.50 342.99 6,082,530,915.88 21 Feb 2006 11,027,349.50 342.99 6,107,626,576.27 22 Feb 2006 11,027,349.50 342.99 6,096,532,414.72 23 Feb 2006 11,027,349.50 342.99 6,076,616,591.83

To: ild who wrote (54005)	2/24/2006 11:38:26 AM
From: aknahow	Respond to of 110194

Yesterday I was wrong but today it seems events have come together. True I realize the Saudi problem drove oil up and that, in theory drove the pog. But all factors work together. While I don't expect the IOB to devastate the dollar it should at the least cause some weakness. The Iranian Oil Bourse supposed to open on March 20. But things have a way of taking longer than one expects. Still anticipation of this event should impact the dollar. Unable to understand todays dollar strength but that is just one item on a pile of things. Message 22154931 Today may be the day GLD trades at a 10 b.p. or over premium to the pog generating a physical delivery to the GLD ETF. I am hopeful that will be the case.