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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lane3 who wrote (12317)	2/16/2006 4:31:43 PM
From: thames_sider	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 543658

Whether the supply is fixed or endless, the likelihood is that they will virtually converge on Iraq for the duration because that's the focal point. How many there are is secondary. Well, some may well converge on Iraq (or Afghanistan, or Pakistan, don't forget these two), and there they'll become more experienced guerrillas. Those who survive, anyhow. But most recent estimates say that apart from the actual suicide bombers themselves, who most definitely are expended but also seem rather easy to supply (from e.g. Saudi Arabia) there seem to be remarkably few foreign fighters there. Most of those fighting there are doing so because it was their homeland. What AQ presence there is seems to be mainly nasty little planners and trainers, setting others up to do the dirty work - I don't recall many boasts of catching AQ members or foreign fighters, and I think we may be fairly sure that such would have been publicised as proving the Bush/Blair case? And there is yet another weakness of this case... "for the duration". The Taliban fought the USSR in Afghanistan, for the duration. I think the following events proved this to be rather unfortunate, since their blooding proved quite effective. So when we eventually bow out from Iraq, what then? Some of the resistance, those who still have homes and families, will no doubt return to them. Some may join formal armies - I think this will number many of the Shia militia. What of those who have nothing but a taste for fighting, a hatred of the US/UK, and a row of graves... I don't think they'll give up. The aftermaths in Zaire or Angola, say, may be relevant, but I think Afghanistan will be the main pointer. Or Chechnya.