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Technology Stocks : XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (XMSR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: pcstel who wrote (2228)2/17/2006 4:09:59 PM
From: DaveMG  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3386
 
You have Op Ex, and Cap Ex, and Revenues.. But, the most important variable in a Subscriber model is CHURN. CHURN kills! Especially if you don't have a methodology to recover your CPGA if the relationship fails.. Like the $200 termination fee you cell phone provider charges.

That makes sense. So is 18%/yr the actual churn number? I have to look into that.

I'm not asking how QC will be paid, and you're answering the question on the pipe I suppose, but how is content paid for?

I;ve been making the mistake of responding to messages without reading the rest of the messages which makes for some discontinuity, sorry about that..



To: pcstel who wrote (2228)2/17/2006 4:50:51 PM
From: DaveMG  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 3386
 
Thanks for getting me to focus more specifically on churn.

I think you're confusing the issue with the specific acounting of CPGA and SAC.

And they're disclosing very clearly on the 8K how many promo subs there are etc..

At 20 million subs if churn were to remain the same it would become almost impossible to grow although if costs remained relatively constant at around 1 billion the the co could still make on the order of a billion/yr.