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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: UncleBigs who wrote (54197)	2/18/2006 2:36:53 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

I don't see a rapid price retreat as long as long term interest rates are low. I do. Inventories are already soaring. As people's ARMs reset they are going to be dialing 1-800-GET-ME-OUT. Mrs. Ork is a RE estate agent in Detroit. It's all she's ever done. You would not believe how bad things are here. She's essentially unemployed. Shorting the homebuilders right now with a 6 p/e and sky high short interest is a very high risk trade in my opinion. You sound like one of the people buying the first big dip in the tech stocks in June 2004. At that time the rest of the market was holding up well, too. I think shorting the homies is the best trade out there, but that's what makes a market. <g> Those 6 PE's are going to be rising very quickly as managements slice their forecasts.

To: UncleBigs who wrote (54197)	2/18/2006 3:11:27 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

<<<There are millions of people who bought in 2001 to 2004 who have used arms and have quite a bit of equity in their homes. These people are prime to refi to a fixed rate mortgage>>> I doubt they will refi into fixed as this will result in a huge increase in interest. I'd guess mortgage brokers will refi them into Option ARMs. Qualification should be easy because of accumulated equity.

To: UncleBigs who wrote (54197)	2/18/2006 4:26:02 PM
From: shades	Respond to of 110194

There is an amazing amount of buying interest under the market. All the helicopter money has to go somewhere - instead of us all becoming landlords on the cheap if/when housing collapses - why dont you buy lots of new computing power www.tomshardware.com - www.newegg.com and quad core machines and load up protein folding applications folding.stanford.edu that will help our science and maybe deliver genetic type stuff that will help you live longer? You can help by simply running a piece of software. Folding@Home is a distributed computing project -- people from through out the world download and run software to band together to make one of the largest supercomputers in the world. Every computer makes the project closer to our goals. Folding@Home uses novel computational methods coupled to distributed computing, to simulate problems thousands to millions of times more challenging than previously achieved. Wouldn't you rather have 200 years of life owning one condo versus owning 5 condo's in fla and dying at 65?