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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: basho who wrote (54230)2/22/2006 10:38:10 AM
From: gpowell  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
For me, the whole issue of the validity and effectiveness of a fractional reserve banking system comes down to whether it is based on specie or fiat money. We agreed, I thought, that left to its own devices the market would choose the former.

Yes, I do agree that the market would likely choose specie redemption.

Anyway, even without that contentious provision, and in the absence of various state sponsored guarantees or privileges, a number of consequences follow:

1) Yes, it is then to my mind an example of spontaneous order.

2) Yes, there are then very definite limits to liquidity expansion.

3) The supply of money (ie specie) to the public would be constrained by what was actually available, not the potentially unlimited supply of fiat money.


The point, though, is that fiat supply is not unlimited in a free market, as the producer faces rising marginal costs of keeping it in circulation. What is causing confusion is that governments are today monopoly producers of money (legal monopoly, as opposed to a natural monopoly) and most of problems the criticisms of a fiat standard are more correctly attributed to the government’s role as an unnatural monopoly.

Finally, a further brief comment on Scottish free banking. My principal reason for responding to your Scottish free banking comment was to do with the question of reserves. Here, the evidence is apparently sparse and mixed but from what I can see, in the mid 1700s at least, specie reserves tended to be 2-4% with holdings of notes from other banks adding another 15-20%.

Yes. The optimal reserve ratio will be a matter of profit optimization, and hence will be different for each bank, each reserve system, and the expected and actual economic conditions that prevail.

More generally, while I don’t pretend to expertise in this area, even a brief review of the literature does indicate there are quite strongly differing views, including it seems by Rothbard with himself! Not on free banking’s existence, nor on the fact that on balance it provides strong support for free market banking, but rather on the degree to which it was “pure”and also the details of its performance.

And that is why I used a few stylized facts from the Scottish banking “free” banking experience rather than to derive a case for free banking, fractional or otherwise, from that experience.