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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Canuck Dave who wrote (54252)	2/19/2006 2:34:20 PM
From: UncleBigs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Doug is smart and analytical but I'm always disappointed in his lack of predictions about the future. In truth, I think he is like everyone else. He doesn't know what is going to happen. Could be crack-up boom, could be imminent bust. This week, Doug merely states the obvious. The credit bubble is in full bloom with no end in sight. That doesn't take a genius to figure that out. It's rather easy to state the current condition. What is difficult is to formulate an accurate, coherent prediction that takes timing and magnitude into account. How much longer and higher can the credit bubble get? When will the bust occur? How deep and long will the bust get? Doug never ventures into these areas. I think it's because it's risky. If he puts out a concrete prediction and is proven wrong then his reputation is blemished. He's weekly column is enjoyable reading but rather useless in projecting out the future.