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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: spongebrain who wrote (48721)	2/19/2006 2:19:46 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

How safe is it to short TOL, Very (although it will gap up Tuesday thanks to Barron's). Their PE is going to go up as their earnings decline. You want to sell cyclicals when their PE is low and buy them when it's high.

To: spongebrain who wrote (48721)	2/19/2006 7:44:47 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

I don't short often but I had a tol short from July to oct of 05 that was a goldmine for me, because it just steadily went down with absolutely NO snapback rallies of any significance whatsoever. There was a snapback rally at the beginning of Nov, right after I exited, and I took that as a sign that the death spiral was actually beginning (not for the company, but for the STOCK) and since then its been one whipsaw after the other with a downtrending slope. I just think the easy money has been made on these homies on the short side and now you have to deal with speculation buying on the cheap, thats a lot harder to manage. As for TOL their PE is low but last I looked they had so much inventory they were WAY overleveraged.